best-risingThe UFC will return to Charlotte, North Carolina this weekend with one of their Fight Night “showcase” events that will feature the main card airing on the ABC network. Since this card will likely have a lot more casual viewers and a larger audience than usual, the promotion has loaded it up with some of their best rising talent such as Jailton Almeida, Ian Garry, and Carlos Ulberg.
These fighters are booked in matchups where they have pretty clear routes to victory on paper, and the betting lines reflect as much, with their Moneylines currently ranging from -300 to -500 (via BetMGM Sportsbook). With those lines pretty high for the average bettor to attack, let’s examine some ways to potentially get some better value on the prop markets for the biggest betting favorite on the card in particular: Jailton Almeida (-500).
Almeida has been an absolute nightmare since debuting in the UFC, racking up four consecutive victories to begin his run with the promotion. He has an 18-2 career record with a 100% stoppage rate in his wins (7 KO/TKO, 11 submissions) and was featured earlier this year in a WagerWire Fighter Spotlight heading into UFC 283.
He’s one of the best wrestlers and grapplers in the heavyweight division, and despite facing a very dangerous opponent here in Jairzinho Rozenstruik, he has a very clear path to victory in this matchup by taking the fight to the ground. I expect Almeida to almost immediately look for takedown opportunities to nullify the threat of Rozenstruik’s power, and he will probably land one sooner rather than later. Once he does, it’s very likely the fight will end shortly thereafter.
Almeida will rain down the ground and pound and try to force Rozenstruik into a bad position where he can attempt to snatch up submissions. Almeida has outlanded his four UFC opponents by a ridiculous 110 to 2 strike differential (mostly on the ground) and has a 9:0 takedown ratio as well in those fights. All four of those fights have also ended inside the first two rounds.
Betting Almeida to win inside the distance is currently listed at -400 on BetMGM. While that is slightly better than his Moneyline, you can bring it down even further by narrowing it down to either KO/TKO (+175) or submission (-120). Personally, I think Rozenstruik will hold up long enough on the ground to get caught up in a submission by Almeida, so that’s the route I’ll be taking for this one. If you’re feeling lucky, Almeida by Sub in Round 1 is currently listed at +175.
Recommended Line: Jailton Almeida by Submission -120