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NFL Best Bets — 12/8/24

100 Week 14 NFL best bets from sharp handicappers

By 
benfawkes
WagerWire Contributor
Las Vegas, NV

The biggest storyline of Week 14 in the NFL comes from Kentucky of all places, where a bettor at Circa Sports wagered $3.1 million the Philadelphia Eagles ML -700 against the Carolina Panthers. I wrote more about the wager for The Athletic.

The Buffalo Bills (-3.5 at Los Angeles Rams) are still the public’s favorite side today. The Bills are the most-bet side at BetMGM and 81% of the bets and total dollars wagered at DraftKings Sportsbook are on Buffalo to cover. However, this line moved from -4.5 to -3.5 at Circa Sports and 88% of the money right now is on the Rams +3.5 there …

One other interesting note is that at both DraftKings and BetMGM, the side with the most total dollars wagered is the Miami Dolphins -6 (vs. NY Jets). Clearly some big wagers out there on the Dolphins to cover.

Here are four sharp plays from out in Las Vegas, courtesy of Jeff Sherman, VP of risk for the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook:

➡️Jaguars +3.5

➡️Eagles -13.5 (this morning)

➡️Rams +4.5

➡️Bears +3.5

Below, I’ve aggregated 100 early Week 14 NFL best bets from respected handicappers for you, along with public betting info from BetMGM. I’ll add more sharp plays in the paid chat throughout the day.

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I recommend taking a look at the Sharp Hunter app as well. It’s from the guys at TruMedia and is tool that helps sports bettors make informed betting decisions by analyzing real-time data and trends from bets being placed by sharp bettors.

Why It’s Unique

  • Identifies sharp betting opportunities and market inefficiencies.
  • Combines historical data with real-time trends for smarter picks.
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BetMGM Week 14 NFL public betting info

Most bet games (tickets)

  1. Bills-Rams
  2. Browns-Steelers
  3. Falcons-Vikings

Most bet teams (tickets)

  1. Bills -3.5
  2. Dolphins -6
  3. Vikings -6

Most bet teams ($$)

  1. Dolphins -6
  2. Chiefs -4
  3. Bills -3.5

Most bet Overs (tickets)

  1. Browns-Steelers 43.5
  2. Jaguars-Titans 40
  3. Bengals-Cowboys 49.5

Most bet Unders (tickets)

  1. Seahawks-Cardinals 44.5
  2. Chargers-Chiefs 43
  3. Jets-Dolphins 45

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Most bet underdogs to win (tickets)

  1. Bears +145
  2. Panthers +600
  3. Seahawks +120

Most bet player props (tickets)

  1. Brock Bowers over 69.5 receiving yards (-130)
  2. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine over 36.5 receiving yards (-135)
  3. Calvin Ridley over 65.5 receiving yards (-130)
  4. Alvin Kamara over 80.5 rushing yards (-140)
  5. Deebo Samuel over 9.5 rushing yards (-110)

Most bet first touchdown scorers (tickets)

  1. Saquon Barkley (PHI) +275
  2. Justin Jefferson (Min) +600
  3. David Njoku (Cle) +1500
  4. De'Von Achane (MIA) +400
  5. Jalen Hurts (Phi) +400

Most bet anytime touchdown scorers (tickets)

  1. Kendre Miller (NO) +425
  2. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Ten) +200
  3. Saquon Barkley (PHI) -275
  4. Zach Charbonnet (Sea) +100
  5. Justin Jefferson (Min) -110

DraftKings

ESPN BET

Panthers @ Eagles

  • 60.3% of bets and 52.7% of handle are on Eagles (-14, opened –12.5)
  • 90.5% of bets and 87.3% of handle are on Eagles ML (-1200)
  • 74.1% of bets and 65.6% of handle are on OVER (45.5, opened 45.5)

Falcons @ Vikings

  • 50.5% of bets and 53.1% of handle are on Vikings (-6, opened –4.5)
  • 86% of bets and 77.6% of handle are on Vikings ML (-275)
  • 74.3% of bets and 58.6% of handle are on OVER (45.5, opened 46.5)

Jaguars @ Titans

  • 65.4% of bets and 64.4% of handle are on Titans (-3, opened –4.5)
  • 77% of bets and 87.5% of handle are on Titans ML (-165)
  • 41.9% of bets and 52.6% of handle are on UNDER (40.5, opened 40.5)

Jets @ Dolphins

  • 71.3% of bets and 85.6% of handle are on Dolphins (-6, opened –6.5)
  • 89.2% of bets and 94.5% of handle are on Dolphins ML (-270)
  • 74.1% of bets and 62.3% of handle are on OVER (44.5, opened 45.5)

Browns @ Steelers

  • 62.2% of bets and 67.5% of handle are on Steelers (-6.5, opened –5.5)
  • 91% of bets and 81.7% of handle are on Steelers ML (-290)
  • 78.8% of bets and 80.3% of handle are on OVER (43.5, opened 41.5)

Saints @ Giants

  • 71% of bets and 64.4% of handle are on Saints (-5, opened –3.5)
  • 90.1% of bets and 85.6% of handle are on Saints ML (-230)
  • 59.7% of bets and 68.7% of handle are on OVER (40.5, opened 39.5)

Raiders @ Buccaneers

  • 77.2% of bets and 78.2% of handle are on Bucs (-6.5, opened –6.5)
  • 93.4% of bets and 90.9% of handle are on Bucs ML (-290)
  • 69.5% of bets and 80.7% of handle are on OVER (46.5, opened 44.5)

Seahawks @ Cardinals

  • 38.8% of bets and 53.5% of handle are on Cardinals (-3, opened –2.5)
  • 51.1% of bets and 50.01% of handle are on Seahawks ML (+125)
  • 32% of bets and 69.7% of handle are on UNDER (44.5, opened 46.5)

Bills @ Rams

  • 77.1% of bets and 68.7% of handle are on Bills (-3.5, opened –3.5)
  • 93% of bets and 93.7% of handle are on Bills ML (-195)
  • 77.3% of bets and 79.5% of handle are on OVER (49.5, opened 48.5)

Bears @ 49ers

  • 67.5% of bets and 78.6% of handle are on Bears (+3.5, opened +5.5)
  • 40.7% of bets and 77.7% of handle are on Bears ML (+145)
  • 69.9% of bets and 76.5% of handle are on OVER (43.5, opened 43.5)

Chargers @ Chiefs

  • 39.7% of bets and 57.1% of handle are on Chiefs (-4, opened –3.5)
  • 75.2% of bets and 74.4% of bets are on Chiefs ML (-210)
  • 75.6% of bets and 65.5% of handle are on OVER (42.5, opened 43.5)

Bengals @ Cowboys

  • 66.5% of bets and 62.6% of handle are on Bengals (-5.5, opened –5.5)
  • 80.7% of bets and 76.9% of handle are on Bengals ML (-240)
  • 79% of bets and 61.7% of handle are on OVER (49.5, opened 47.5)

Most Bet Sides by total bets

  • Bills -3.5
  • Eagles -14
  • Dolphins -6
  • Buccaneers –6.5
  • Steelers –6.5

Two FREE Week 14 NFL best bets from Mike Randle at FTN Bets

Los Angeles Chargers ML (+172 at DraftKings)

I’ve waited to make this pick all year. The Chargers have built their roster to beat the Chiefs, and I’m projecting that to come to fruition in Week 14. Los Angeles ranks sixth overall in defensive DVOA, including fifth against the pass. They also have a huge chess piece in safety Derwin James Jr., who missed the first matchup with Kansas City due to a suspension. James is a critical part of limiting tight end Travis Kelce (and maybe Noah Gray?) and is also a strong part of the Los Angeles run defense.

In their first matchup this year, not only was James suspended, but the Chargers played without their top two offensive linemen in rookie Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. Quarterback Justin Herbert was still battling a foot injury as well, and the Chargers narrowly lost 17-10. Given Kansas City’s repeated miracle escapes from defeat, this spot is perfect for the Chargers.

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Assuming rookie wideout Ladd McConkey plays, Los Angeles will still have enough offensive weapons to attack a Chiefs pass defense that ranks just 16th in DVOA. Kansas City also ranks second worst at defending opposing WR3s per DVOA-adjusted fantasy points against, and fifth worst against tight ends. The loss of running back J.K. Dobbins certainly is a challenge, but veterans Gus Edwards, Hassan Haskins and dynamic rookie Kimani Vidal provide enough variety and depth to compensate.

Kansas City has won six straight games against the Chargers, but five of those games have been decided by seven points or less. Our FTN NFL Betting Model assigns the highest side edge to the Chargers +3.5 this week. We project the Chargers to win this game 21.4 to 19.4, which equates to a 9.9% edge. I’ve waited all year for this moneyline pick, and I’m rolling with the Chargers to cash our Week 14 underdog pick.

Will Levis Over 208.5 Passing Yards (-110, BetMGM)

If you can’t back Will Levis over passing yards at home against the Jaguars, when can you? The Jaguars are a deflated team, and now go on the road against a young Tennessee squad that was very competitive in the four prior matchups before last week’s destruction at Washington. The Jaguars pass defense is among the worst in the league, ranking dead-last in DVOA. Jacksonville also ranks fourth-worst in DVOA-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers, and the fifth-most receptions and fourth most receiving yards to opposing running backs.

Levis has beat this number in three straight weeks and crested 260 passing yards in two of his last three home games. This is one of our top prop edges for Week 14 per our FTN Prop Tool, projecting Levis for 235.5 passing yards equating to a 17.8% edge.

Week 14 NFL best bets from sharp handicappers

Early games

Browns +7 — Chris Raybon, Action

Browns +7 — Chris Macero, pro bettor

Browns +7 — Sharp Hunter app

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