2024 MLB Home Run Derby odds, prediction and best bets
MLB’s Home Run Derby is a midseason spectacle. Every summer, fans watch the power displays with amazement as the game’s finest long-ball lashers repeatedly annihilate meatball after meatball. To many, the annual exhibition is the highlight of All-Star Week, an exercise that triggers a steady stream of oohs and aahs.
Last year, Julio Rodriguez reset the record books by launching 41 homers in the opening round. The Mariners center fielder, who participated in 2022, ranks third all time with 142 career blasts in the Derby.
Though J-Rod will keep the bats in cold storage for Monday’s event at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, the showcase’s most redoubtable round-tripper — Mets slugger Pete Alonso with his 195 career Derby HRs — is set to destroy dingers in his fifth-straight competition.
Of course, in this golden age of sports betting, there are numerous ways for bettors to magnify the moonshots. With glove in hand, here is how this opportunistic gambler is hoping to snag a couple of winners.
MLB Home Run Derby winner odds (Ceasars)
PlayerOddsPete Alonso+340Marcell Ozuna+400Bobby Witt Jr.+475Adolis Garcia+500Gunnar Henderson+500Teoscar Hernandez+950Jose Ramirez+1300Alec Bohm+1600
Marcell Ozuna to win the Home Run Derby (+400, Ceasars)
The 33-year-old veteran has never participated in the big fly fest, but if he hoists the hardware, it will hardly be beginner’s luck. Among this year’s field, Ozuna ranks at or near the top of several critical categories entering the All-Star break, including expected home runs (29.0), no-doubters (11) and adjusted exit velocity (97.0 mph).
With four homers registering 440 feet or more to his name this season, the Atlanta designated hitter has the characteristics to crush taters. His stocky build and smooth swing also suggest he possesses the endurance needed to exert consistent, high-energy swings. Unquestionably, he’s the biggest threat to defeat Alonso, the favorite at +340.
Bobby Witt Jr. to reach the final (+210, Caesars)
Similar to the Braves basher, Kansas City’s stitch slammer is an advanced analytics darling when it comes to jacks. On the year, he’s one of the league’s pacesetters in average bat speed (74.5 mph), adjusted exit velocity (96.5 mph), no-doubters (12) and expected home runs (21.2).
Like Ozuna, he’s a Derby first timer, which can come with a learning curve. Still, the Dallas native's 468-foot yakety yak off Detroit’s Casey Mize on May 21 is the longest long-ball smacked by anyone in the Derby field. Among the American League reps — Jose Ramirez, Gunnar Henderson and Adolis Garcia — he’s the dude to beat.
OVER 26.5 home runs hit by any player in Round 1 (-110, Caesars)
Sifting through the ballpark factors data at Baseball Savant, Globe Life Field owns the fourth-highest ranking for home run friendliness over the last three seasons. Though a pop factory on both sides, it especially favors right-handers.
Last year, three Derby participants produced 27 or more pokes in Round 1. Stretching back to 2019, at least one bat has blasted what’s needed. Throw in how fresh guys always are out of the gate, and chances are someone will flex his muscle to the money.
Total swing-offs OVER 0.5 (+320, Caesars)
Admittedly, this is a bit of a crapshoot. It’s on par with an overtime bet in basketball or action on the draw in soccer. However, it’s not a completely out-of-left-field occurrence.
At least one extra session happened in three of the past four Derbies. No bonus frame was required last year, but at +320, it’s an attractive wager given the recent history.
Rooting for a tie is never particularly entertaining, but if a deadlock materializes, backers will cash handsomely.
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