For the first time in 10 years, the U.S. Open returns to Pinehurst, North Carolina. A golf-centric town between Raleigh and Charlotte, Pinehurst features 10 courses and is highlighted by No. 2, which is where the third major tournament of 2024 will be played.
The event is run by the United States Golf Association (USGA), the governing body that prides itself on making courses challenging. I would expect the setup of Pinehurst to be very difficult, especially after the PGA Championship’s low scoring last month at Valhalla Golf Club where Xander Schauffele won at 21 under par.
Martin Kaymer was the last U.S. Open champion at Pinehurst, winning by eight strokes at 9-under in 2014. He is now on the LIV Tour and one of 13 LIV players who are in this week’s field. Remember: They are allowed to play in this event because it isn’t sanctioned by the PGA Tour.
Can anyone beat Scottie Scheffler? Betting outrights in golf have been difficult because of his dominance. A contender in any tournament he plays, Scheffler has five wins in his last eight starts, including a victory last week at the Memorial.
Even when Scheffler doesn’t win, he comes close. He finished runner-up at both the Houston Open and Charles Schwab Challenge in his home state. His worst finish in the last three months was eighth place at the PGA Championship. That was the same weekend where he got arrested hours before his Friday round and had a bad Saturday playing without his caddie Ted Scott, who attended his daughter’s high school graduation.
It’s intimidating to oppose Scheffler, but at odds around +300, it’s hard to make that bet because you realistically can’t add anyone else without being overexposed. If you are willing to bet against Scheffler, I recommend taking a look at four players who could win this year’s U.S. Open.
Collin Morikawa (+1600, BetRivers)
I started betting U.S. Open outrights over the weekend after monitoring what was going on at the Memorial. In my research for U.S. Open picks, Morikawa stood out because of his results in the last two months and the course fit at Pinehurst, which values strong iron play and places less emphasis on drive length.
Morikawa started 2024 slowly but turned his season around at the Masters, where he was in the final pairing with Scheffler and finished tied for third. He also played in the final round’s last pairing at the PGA Championship, but a bad Sunday with his putter left him in a tie for fourth place. Last Sunday, he was in another final pairing with Scheffler at the Memorial. Morikawa came one shot short of making up a four-stroke deficit with 18 holes to play in really tough conditions.
On Saturday night, I bet on Morikawa to win the U.S. Open with the idea that the price would shorten if he pushed Scheffler on Sunday. He did just that, and now we are looking at a lot of 14/1 odds in the market on Morikawa with some shops listing him at 16/1. I don’t love the current price, but the form and course fit point to Morikawa being in contention to win his third career major.
Brooks Koepka (+2200, BetMGM and FanDuel)
Last weekend, I had two LIV players — Koepka and Jon Rahm — on my radar after they drifted to 24/1. I thought both were underpriced given their U.S. Open histories. Rahm ended up withdrawing from LIV Houston on Saturday with an injury, so I’ve left him off my list. However, Koepka did enough to warrant a Monday morning bet.
The two-time U.S. Open champion shot a pedestrian 70 and 72 in his first two rounds but turned it up on Sunday with a 65 for the day’s lowest round. Koepka won his U.S Open titles in 2017 and 2018 and came close to a third in 2019 and 2021. Before he became a five-time major winner, he played at the last U.S. Open at Pinehurst as a 24-year-old and finished tied for fourth.
Koepka’s 45th-place finish at the Masters and 26th-place showing at the PGA Championship have created a valuable outright betting number for a player I would’ve expected to be priced closer to 18/1. That’s enough for me to bet on Koepka to win his third U.S. Open.
Tommy Fleetwood (+3500, Caesars)
Maybe it’s foolish to bet on a player to win his first major tournament on American soil, but I’m going to take a chance on Fleetwood. The Englishman has three top-five showings at the U.S. Open — fourth in 2017, second in 2018 and tied for fifth in 2023.
Fleetwood finished tied for third at the Masters and has strung together some solid results in the buildup to this week. I also like the course fit at Pinehurst for Fleetwood, who has the ability to grind out pars in tough conditions.
Keegan Bradley (+9000, BetMGM and FanDuel)
I bet on Bradley this past week at the Memorial with the thought I could be on him at Pinehurst. After a strong start to his week in Ohio, I decided to back Bradley in North Carolina this week. He was in contention at the Memorial until his back nine on Saturday, when he bogeyed two of the par-5s and then completely ejected Sunday by shooting 8-over-par.
Those struggles in the final 27 holes won’t deter me from tipping him this week because of his intriguing overall profile. Bradley has been playing stellar golf lately, starting at the PGA Championship where he led the field in strokes gained off the tee and finished tied for 18th. The following week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, he again ranked first off the tee and finished tied for second with Scheffler.
Bradley has a mixed bag of U.S. Open results, but he did finish tied for fourth at Pinehurst 10 years ago. I’m planning to add a top-five placement bet on Bradley after already taking him outright this past Friday.