We have arrived at the time of year where we no longer have a choice but to start paying attention to college hoops. With zero football this weekend, and no you could not pay me to watch the pro bowl, we fortunately get a loaded slate of top 25 action to get us back into it. If you lock in now, you might have a chance to get out of the first weekend of March Madness with your bracket not entirely busted.
It may even start to feel a little bit like March this weekend, with 22 of the Top 25 teams in the nation in action on Saturday, wall to wall coverage of conference play that will paint a clearer picture of who the real contenders are heading towards the stretch run.
I’m going to highlight 5 ranked vs ranked matchups that are must see games throughout the day. While the lines have yet to be released, I expect them to be close matchups that, and will give you a side to cover the probably lines.
- Kansas @ Iowa State
Tied near the top of the Big 12, these two teams got off to great starts only to have both struggled a bit as of late. Kansas dropped a couple in a row, while Iowa State managed to blow a 23 point second half lead at home vs Texas Tech. Knocking off two of their historic rivals in Kentucky and KSU has the Jayhaws back on track, but they are sure to be tested mightily once again in Ames. These teams played a tight one a couple weeks ago, with Kansas eking out a 2 point victory at Allen Fieldhouse, a home court advantage that is good for a few possessions. I would not be surprised to see the Clones as slight home favorites come Saturday. They are tough minded defensively, and have a bunch of guys that can hit from the outside, always easier to do in front of your home crowd. Kansas is no stranger to big road wins, as they search for a shot at back 2 back national titles which hasnt been accomplished since UF in 07 led by the great Joakim Noah. We’ll wait and see on the spread when it drops, but my early lean is towards Iowa State moneyline on their home court to knock off the Jayhawks.
2. #25 Auburn @ #2 Tennessee
As soon as that one goes final, we are led right into one of the best atmospheres in college basketball with the #2 ranked Volunteers hosting their former head coach, Bruce Pearl, and the Auburn Tigers. While its not quite Andy Reid facing the Eagles in the Super Bowl, it presents a juicy storyline to an already important SEC matchup. Pearl accomplished a ton with the Vols, but never got them quite to the heights they seem to be achieving now. Meanwhile, Auburn is having another strong season under Pearl despite losing the #2 overall pick in the NBA draft from last years team. The Tigers will look to stay ranked with a win, which is no easy task at all playing on the road in Knoxville, as Pearl knows well. The crowd will be all over him and plenty loud for the home team that is coming off a loss in Gainsville this week. I see bounceback written all over this one, as the Auburn guards tend to play out of control in tough situations. I could see a line anywhere from 6–10, and would be comfortable backing Tennessee to take care of business with a double digit W.
3. #1 Purdue @ #21 Indiana
As if the timing couldn’t work any better for ESPN, we have a colossal big 10 matchup tipping off immediately after that one goes final. Matt Painter takes his #1 Purdue Boildermakers into Assembly Hall to face a tough, defensive minded Indiana Hoosiers squad. While Zach Edey has yet to meet his match in college basketball this year, Bloomington might be the place where he does with a frontcourt led by All-American Trayce Jackson Davis. Purdue’s stacked resume that features one loan loss, the Boilermakers are primed for the #1 overall seed going into the NCAA Tournament. With that said, we have seen even superior teams struggle historically going into this environment on a cold winter Saturday afternoon. The student section will be rowdy and behind their Hoosiers who have only fallen once on their home floor this season. The Boilermakers are a different beast, evidenced by wins over Gonzaga, Duke, and other strong teams, but Mike Woodson will have his group ready to battle. A 22–1 record is no joke, but I can sniff out an upset in this spot. If there was ever a time to bet the situation, it would be a seemingly unbeatable #1 ranked team going into an extremely hostile environment to face a team with a guy who has a chance of slowing down the best player in the country. I could see Vegas setting this line at Purdue -2.5 or 3, and I will be ready to smash IU moneyline to set off a huge Saturday evening in Bloomington, Indiana.
4. #10 Texas @ #7 Kansas State
Simultaneously, we have a massive matchup in the Big 12, with two top 10 teams facing off in Manhattan, KS. With all that has gone down in Austin this year, the Longhorns sit alone atop the conference, however, any stumble opens the door for any one of the 5 teams chasing them. Kansas State is in the midst of a tough week, that kicked off with a road loss to their in-state rival, and will be looking for some home cooking to help them bounce back. Fortunately for them, they haven't lost at home this season, and Bramlage Coliseum can be one of the toughest environments on earth. This week has been no walk in the park for Texas either, as they were manhandled in Knoxville and need a win here to keep their hopes for a #1 seed alive. The first time around, these teams played an NBA style game that saw KSU winning 116–103. Safe to say these coaches will be running some defensive drills in their preparation for this one, and we should see some more effort on that end of the floor. Former Gator Keyonte Johnson has been KSU’s best player and will be the best player on the floor Saturday. Combining that with a raucous home crowd leads me to believe that Kansas State is the right side in this one. Texas has not shown they are capable of beating good teams on the road yet, and in a game where I expect the spread to be small, I am backing the Wildcats to remain unbeaten on their home court.
5. #12 Gonzaga @ #18 St. Mary’s
In our nightcap, we have the always intriguing WCC matchup as Mark Few’s powerhouse Zags go into St. Marys. In a shocking turn of events, the Gaels are the side that is undefeated in conference play, with Gonzaga suffering a conference home loss for seemingly the first time since the 90s. Usually, this is the night where Gonzaga is at risk for a conference defeat, but things have not been as peachy as usual in Spokane this year. With 4 losses already, Gonzaga looks to bounce back and they’ll need a resume boosting road win to do it. The record might be down, but the talent is still there for Coach Few led by Drew Timme in what feels like his 8th year on campus. Winners of 10 straight, this years Gaels are no slouches, and they already played #3 ranked Houston extremely competitively so we know they have the ability to hang. In an always hotly contested spot, the public and pundits alike will be all over St. Mary’s. A slightly down Gonzaga team in an environment they always struggle in, against a St. Mary’s group that is better than normal? It screams like a chance to fade the Zags, which is exactly why I am backing them to go into St. Mary’s and steal a victory. Gonzaga can’t be comfortable seeing a team ahead of them in the conference standings, and this is their one chance to control their destiny to get back to the top. Drew Timme has played in this game 7 times already, so he will be poised and lead his group that still features far more athleticism and talent than any one else in this conference. While it may not be the year for Gonzaga to make a deep run in March, they will finish conference play off strongly and a win here would be the start of yet another WCC title run for Mark Few.