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NFL — 11/14/23

All Eyes on the AFC North

By 
@AJ
WagerWire Editor-In-Chief

More than halfway through the NFL season, there is one division that has stood above the rest, both in geography on a map as well as in Win-Loss records. The AFC North has always played a tough brand of football, but perhaps never tougher than this year with all 4 teams looking like playoff contenders going into Week 11.

This week will go a long way towards determining the value of their Super Bowl futures, as all four teams go head-to-head starting Thursday Night. when the 7-3 Ravens host Joe Burrow and the 5-4 Bengals.

The Bengals seemed to have bounced back from a rocky start behind their hobbled superstar QB, right up until they fell flat against the Texans last Sunday, busting WagerWire’s survivor dreams in the process. That loss tanked CInci’s SB value down almost 50%, as they fell back two in the Win column leading up to a tough road test on a short week.

The Ravens had been enjoying a steady climb over the last month after a few dominant performances outside the division. Lamar Jackson and the offense has been clicking, to go along with a tough D that held sturdy up until Sunday. The loss to the Browns knocked Baltimore down a notch, but they remain atop the division, and their backers are still holding tickets up 1.73x.

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With the thrilling victory road victory on Sunday, Deshaun Watson and the Browns are holding the highest value ticket, with a $100 preseason wager sitting at $178. The gutsy showing Sunday put the rest of the AFC on notice, that this version of the Browns is not to be overlooked. Myles Garrett and the defense has been wrecking games all year, but if the offense can contribute like they did, this division will run through the Dawg Pound.

Pittsburgh would like to have something to say about that, but have not played as well as their 6-3 record suggests. Never has a team achieved such a record while being out-gained in every game of the season. That strategy can’t last, nor does it fool the data, which values a $100 ticket at $63 heading into Sunday.

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With all of that said about team records and yards gained, none of that matters when AFC north teams go up against each other. The squads know each other inside and out, the level pf physicality is off the charts, and the games generally come down to the wire. It will be exciting to watch Thursday night, and to see where the Super Bowl future values end up after this week plays out.