Arizona Cardinals: 2024 best prop bets and fantasy draft value
The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Arizona Cardinals.
Fantasy value — Greg Dortch, WR (ADP: 239.67, WR97)
Talk about an off-the-radar selection. Dortch is the deepest of deep WR sleepers. He’ll largely go undrafted in 12-team PPR formats, but there’s a building drumbeat attached to the projected starting slot man. It’s rising slowly and, if everything falls into place, it could crescendo similar to Phil Collins’ “In the Air Tonight.”
Dortch is undersized (5-foot-7), pedestrian athletically and nowhere close to being an advanced analytics standout, so readers may question this scribe’s sanity. It’s understandable. Maybe the tequila is talking. However, when presented with opportunities, the 26-year-old has proven to be at least serviceable.
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Last season in games in which he played at least 50% of team snaps, Dortch scored 11 or more PPR points in four of seven games, averaging 5.6 targets, 3.3 receptions and 39.7 receiving yards per game. He also scored two touchdowns. Again, we’re not talking league-winning production, but he can be useful when the matchup warrants.
Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride will unquestionably lead Arizona in target share, but Kyler Murray, who recently called Dortch “unguardable,” is rather fond of what the diminutive wideout can bring to the offense. If Dortch secures the slot gig later this summer, he’s a dark horse candidate for 75-plus catches. Make him your Mr. Irrelevant.
Prop pick — Kyler Murray UNDER 21.5 passing touchdowns (-125, Caesars)
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The Dachshund of the Desert won’t earn any fancy Farmer’s Dog dishes as a passer this season.
Frankly, this number is a bit inflated. Most prognosticators have Murray forecasted for 17-20 passing TDs. Their projections are believable.
Arizona’s offensive line should be uncomfortably welcoming, which inevitably will push Murray into scurry mode. Most concerning is the Cardinals’ third-toughest projected strength of schedule for fantasy QBs. And let’s not forget the injury downside. Over the last two years, Murray has missed a combined 15 games.
The plucky passer did complete 62.1% of his attempts inside the red-zone last season, and Harrison’s arrival is a major plus. Given the environment and other potential stumbling blocks, though, it’s very unlikely Murray will come anywhere close to the end-zone strikes thrown in 2020 (26) or 2021 (24). I’m sledgehammering the UNDER.
Team lean — UNDER 6.5 wins (+135, Caesars)
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The UNDER 6.5 wins at significant plus money seems too good to be true.
Arizona owns the third-hardest overall strength of schedule. Even worse, ESPN’s Mike Clay ranks both the offense and defense as bottom-seven units entering the 2024 season. The respected numbers cruncher also gives the Cardinals a 50% or greater win probability in a measly TWO games. That’s it.
In a very competitive NFC West, Jonathan Gannon’s club will be lucky to claim victory in five games, let alone seven.
