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Bracket Brad isn’t without random thoughts and opinions. Whether discussing team trends or other perspectives, he’ll occasionally spout his bracketology-related reactions on The Gaming Juice.
The pick — Arkansas to make the NCAA Tournament (+135, BetMGM)
The confetti from the SuperDome ceiling has fallen. Celebratory smooches on significant others have been laid. And rah-rah speeches commemorating the moment have occurred.
Congrats, Philadelphia. You’ve reached the NFL summit.
With meaningful football once again about to enter dormancy — betting on the UFL is next-level degeneracy — college basketball takes center stage. Believe it or not, Selection Sunday is just over a month away. Bring on the MADNESS.
[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans' latest NCAA Tournament projections ]
Whether Arkansas, a consensus preseason top-25 team, slips on its dancing shoes remains anyone’s best guess. Inarguably one of the nation’s most underwhelming squads, the Hogs have steadily had one hoof in the slaughterhouse.
However, Woo Pig Sooie is bound and determined to hear its name called for the field of 68. Though a golden opportunity was spoiled last Saturday against Alabama at Bud Walton Arena with an 85-81 loss that sunk its SEC record to an abysmal 3-7, John Calipari’s crew still has an at-large argument.
In what has become customary in recent years, this season’s tournament bubble is bringing the weak stuff. ACC Average Joes North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Wake Forest are all residents in Bubbleville with sickly profiles that lack quality wins. Well-known acronyms BYU, SMU and UCF also pack the pestilence.
Each resume is littered with flaws. Most worrisome, time is running out to make the necessary improvements.
If NCAA Tournament berths were announced today, the Razorbacks would have done enough to warrant a spot. Yes, their conference mark is unsightly, but that isn’t weighed in the committee’s process.
Glancing at the pertinent metrics, Arkansas is a respectable No. 43 overall in the NET, No. 21 in strength of schedule and 3-7 against Quadrant 1 opponents. Also with no bad losses, the general profile is somewhat healthy.
Most importantly, the Hogs’ participation in the rough and rugged SEC means they have 5-7 additional Q1 opportunities. Claim victory in two or three of those matchups, and Selection Sunday shouldn’t require an extra layer of Old Spice.
Zvonimir Ivisic and cohorts are a lousy No. 338 in effective field-goal percentage offense over the last month. With Boogie Fland out with a hand injury, former FAU standout Johnell Davis and D.J. Wagner must continue to effectively stroke the rock. Ivisic and Adou Theiro also need to pound the paint consistently down the homestretch. Stout defensively, Arkansas should hang tough.
According to KenPom, the Razorbacks have a 54% or better win probability to emerge victorious in four of their last eight games. Handle those engagements and win projected coin-flip matchups against Missouri or at Vanderbilt, and they likely land on the No. 11 seed line. However, if they finish 3-5 or worse in their remaining regular-season contests, a deep SEC tourney run will be needed.
Arkansas is +135 to strut like Kendrick Lamar into the NCAA Tournament field. It’s hardly “Game Over” for a team once clearly on the ropes. Given the plus odds, the Razorbacks are a solid bet to dance.
Drake, however, probably disagrees.
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