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On par with a matchup between Glass Joe and a digitized Mike Tyson in NES classic “Punch Out!” is the argument of what school will have its name called first on Selection Sunday.
Frankly, it’s no contest.
FanDuel posted the Auburn Tigers as -1800 favorites to earn the honor. Though that number may shrink slightly once reactivated (UPDATE: It's comically reopened at -270), Bruce Pearl’s squad is the unrivaled titan in college basketball.
Sorry, disagreeable Duke fans.
Congratulations on your distinguished degree, current enrollment in one of the world’s premier academic institutions or bandwagon fandom since the Christian Laettner days, but, please, bury the bias for a moment and embrace objectivity.
Johni Broome and company own several distinct resume advantages. Period.
For starters, Auburn has played the hardest schedule in the country. Duke, meanwhile, is No. 68 in overall strength of schedule. Teams who are challenged have always been rewarded by the Selection Committee.
Sorry, but blame the ACC’s mediocrity. With only three times likely to make the Dance and ranked considerably lower according to power metrics (KenPom rating: +9.40), the once-mighty league isn’t even in the same zip code as the SEC (+22.08).
Secondly, Auburn is 15-4 in coveted Quadrant 1 games. Though a laudable 7-3 in the same category, Duke isn’t in sniffing distance.
[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans' latest NCAA Tournament projections ]
As previously discussed, the Tigers sport one of the most impressive profiles in the NET era. Also, the top seed in the SEC Tournament will soon have additional committee-arousing opportunities. Even if Auburn bows out early in Nashville, its dominance in the measurement won't be challenged.
Yes, Duke, at home, beat the Tigers head-to-head in early December. And Cooper Flagg is a basketball god who will likely best Broome for Wooden Award honors, and the Devils are No. 1 in the NET, KenPom and BartTorvik after ripping off eight straight wins by an average margin of 29.5 points. However, understand the process.
Recency isn’t rewarded. As the committee has always stressed, teams are viewed through a “full body of work” lens. Your “last 10” or “last month” performance is irrelevant.
And remember: Being the 1 of 1s in any NCAA Tournament is revered for merely one hot minute. Once the ball is tipped and teams advance on bracket lines, it's quickly forgotten.
Cameron Crazies bent out of shape about bracketologist viewpoints need to focus on the grand-prize potential. Worry about the draw, not hollow top overall seed designations.
War Eagle will have its name called first on March 16. Bank on it.
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