The biggest betting story on Sunday was the $3.1 million wager from a Kentucky bettor on the Philadelphia Eagles ML at -700 odds (vs. the Carolina Panthers), placed at Circa Sports. The Eagles held on to win 22-16 over the Panthers, but if Xavier Legette holds to that ball and scores a TD who knows how the game ends.
The Miami Dolphins (-6) winning 32-26 in overtime over the New York Jets was a game that hurt some sportsbooks, including the Borgata. As Thomas Gable, the sportsbook director there texted me yesterday, “High six-figure swing with that Miami/Jets game. Not in our favor. With all the parlay and teaser liability that was going into the Miami spread and money line, it was a costly loss.”
Underdogs went 7-4 ATS on Sunday, while favorites won eight of the 11 games. Unders went 6-5.
Tonight, we have an important game with two teams on the fringe of the playoff picture, as the Cincinnati Bengals (-5, 50) play at the Dallas Cowboys. It feels like the Bengals have had “must-win” games for a while now, but are 1-4 SU in their last five. The Cowboys? Well, they have a nice stadium.
This line has been on the move today, with Circa down to Bengals -4.5 as of this posting (opened -5.5).
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Here are a few notable trends from ESPN Stats & Information:
- Joe Burrow is 11-4 ATS in his career as a road favorite, including 11-2 ATS when laying less than seven points.
- The Bengals are 5-1 ATS on the road this season. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS at home.
- The Cowboys are 3-10 ATS as underdogs over the last two seasons.
Below, I’ve compiled 10 best bets on the game from respected bettors and public betting information from a variety of sportsbooks. As always, I’ll update this file on BFawkes22.substack.com as we approach kickoff with more info, including sharp plays from oddsmakers.
Have a great Monday!
Public betting info
DraftKings
Circa Sports
BetMGM
Most bet (tickets) Bengals-Cowboys player props
- Brandin Cook over 26.5 receiving yards (-115)
- KaVontae Turpin over 11.5 receiving yards (-130)
- Cooper Rush over 234.5 passing yards (-115)
- Ja’Marr Chase over 78.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Joe Burrow over 275.5 passing yards (-115)
Most bet (tickets) Bengals-Cowboys players to score anytime touchdown
- Ja’Marr Chase -155
- CeeDee Lamb +165
- Tee Higgins +130
- Chase Brown -200
- Rico Dowdle -120
Most bet (tickets) Bengals-Cowboys players to score 1st touchdown
- Ja’Marr Chase +450
- Chase Brown +400
- Tee Higgins +800
- CeeDee Lamb +1100
- Rico Dowdle +600
ESPN BET
- 67.3% of bets and 60.5% of handle are on Bengals (-5.5, opened –5.5)
- 79.1% of bets and 79.2% of handle are on Bengals ML (-240)
- 74.1% of bets and 75.4% of handle are on OVER (49.5, opened 47.5)
BetRivers
Bengals (-5.5, -245 ML) at Cowboys (+200 ML), O/U 49.5
Moneyline: 69% money & 82% tickets on Bengals
Spread: 61% money & 65% tickets on Bengals
Over/Under: 83% money & 82% tickets on Over
Most wagered-on player props by largest % of total game handle:
1. Ja'Marr Chase anytime TD (-157) -- 2.3%
2. Chase Brown anytime TD (-210) -- 1.5%
3. Chase Brown u17.5 rush attempts (-135) -- 1.0%
Most popular player props by largest % of total game tickets:
1. Ja'Marr Chase anytime TD (-157) -- 6.0%
2. Chase Brown anytime TD (-210) -- 3.5%
3. CeeDee Lamb anytime TD (+140) -- 2.1%
Photo by Jake Willett on Unsplash
Best bets for Monday Night Football
Cowboys +5.5 — James Salinas, pro bettor
Ben Fawkes' Sports Betting Substack
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