It was another generally good week for the betting public, as the most-bet side (Detroit Lions -6.5/-7) by both total dollars wagered and total wagers at multiple sportsbooks easily covered in a dominating 34-17 road win over the Chicago Bears. The Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) losing outright to the Carolina Panthers 36-30 and Philadelphia Eagles (-4) losing 36-33 to the Washington Commanders were two great results for books, helping to break up money-line parlays on favorites.
Favorites only went 7-5 ATS on Sunday, but also won and covered on Thursday Night Football (Chargers) and the two Saturday standalone games (Chiefs and Ravens).
Tonight, the Green Bay Packers (-14) are massive favorites against the New Orleans Saints, who turn to Spencer Rattler at QB and also will be missing running back Alvin Kamara. The betting public is wagering on a Packers blowout with 65%+ of bets and 70%+ of money on Green Bay to cover at multiple sportsbooks.
This line opened Packers -13 at DraftKings and moved as high as -14.5 at some books, but is currently a consensus -14 in the market. Green Bay hasn’t been a double-digit favorite since 2022, and this would be the biggest spread in Matt LaFleur’s tenure if the line closes -14 or higher, per ESPN Stats & Information.
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Here are a few notable trends from ESPN Stats & Information:
- The Saints have been double-digit underdogs only once in the last 19 seasons (+11.5 at Buccaneers in 2021, won the game outright 9-0)
- The Saints are 3-14 ATS in prime-time games over the last five seasons (worst record in the NFL)
- Green Bay has covered four straight games
Below, I’ve compiled best bets on the game from respected bettors and public betting information from a variety of sportsbooks. As always, I’ll update this file on BFawkes22.substack.com as we approach kickoff with more info, including sharp plays from oddsmakers.
Have a great Monday!
Public betting info
DraftKings
BetMGM
Opened Packers -13.5, now -14
- 65% of bets, 71% of money on Packers
Total opened 42.5, still 42.5
- 75% of bets, 79% of money on Over
Most bet (tickets) Packers-Saints player props
1. Kendre Miller over 52.5 rushing yards
2. Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 30.5 receiving yards
3. Josh Jacobs over 88.5 rushing yards
4. Miller under 2.5 receptions made
5. Foster Moreau over 19.5 receiving yards
Most bet (tickets) Packers-Saints to score 1st TD
1. Josh Jacobs +275
2. Jayden Reed +800
3. Tucker Kraft +900
4. Romeo Doubs +850
5. Christian Watson +900
Most bet (tickets) Packers-Saints to score anytime TD
1. Josh Jacobs -275
2. GB D/ST +400
3. Kendre Miller +175
4. Jamaal Williams +600
5. Tucker Kraft -125
ESPN BET
Saints at Packers
- 68.8% of bets and 56.6% of handle are on Packers (-14.5, opened –14)
- 93% of bets and 90.4% of handle are on Packers ML (-1200)
- 61.8% of bets and 62.6% of handle are on OVER (43.5, opened 42.5)
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Best bets for Monday Night Football
Saints +14 — Stuckey, Action
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