We’ve had two straight weeks of quality Thursday Night Football games, and tonight we have … well, it’s a Thursday night with an NFL game on, so we can’t complain too much. The 8-2 Pittsburgh Steelers are only 3.5-point road favorites at the 2-8 Cleveland Browns. The Steelers have consistently rewarded bettors this season, tied for the NFL’s best mark against the spread at 8-2. The Browns? It hasn’t mattered too much if it’s been Deshaun Watson or Jameis Winston at quarterback, as they’ve gone 3-7 ATS.
“Opened Steelers laying 4.5 on the road and the total at 40.5,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata, texted me. “Total is down four points from where we opened it, clearly it was too high. We’ve seen some respected money early on the Browns. They took respected money last week, it seems to be since Jameis Winston came in that you’ve seen some sharper play on them weekly. I think the public is going to be all over Pittsburgh in this one. It is a short turnaround for them and a big spot vs. Baltimore, so maybe a letdown spot, but I’m of the opinion that you can’t go against Mike Tomlin at this point.”
The betting public is indeed all over Pittsburgh in this one, as at least 80% of bets and 65% of the total dollars wagered at every sportsbook I checked in with are on the Steelers to cover.
A few notable trends from ESPN Stats & Information on the game:
- Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS this season, tied for the best mark in the NFL this season. The Steelers are 18-9 ATS over the past two seasons, second best behind the Lions
- The Steelers have covered five straight games, tied for their longest single-season cover streak in the Mike Tomlin era.
- The Steelers are 4-1 ATS on the road this season, while the Browns are 1-4 ATS at hom
- The Browns have covered four straight games on short rest and are 7-2 ATS in that role under head coach Kevin Stefanski
- The Steelers are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games as favorites
Below is some public betting information from several sportsbooks, along with 15 best bets for the game from respected handicappers. I’ll be adding to this file as we approach kickoff.
Good luck tonight!