The Big East conference this year, to say the least, has been a major disappointment. Despite 10 of the 11 teams ranking inside the top 100 of KenPom, the league has struggled mightily outside of conference play aside from UConn. Because of that, UConn and St. John’s are currently the only teams projected to be seeded higher than a 5 in the NCAA Tournament, which is far below expectations for what is usually one of the strongest conferences in the country.
The Favorite – UConn (-110 FanDuel)
UConn is the favorite, but they have been extremely inconsistent throughout the second half of the season. One night, they beat St. John’s by 32 points, and then they followed it up with a loss to a 12-19 Marquette team. In that game, the Huskies shot just 3-for-24 from deep, which is important to note. UConn will also be without Jaylin Stewart for the entire tournament, which hurts their depth, as he has been an important role player all year. That said, I do like their draw if they can get past Marquette. They would likely see a Villanova team without Matthew Hodge in the next round before a potential championship matchup, which gives them a clear path if they play to their ceiling.
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Dark Horse – Marquette (+6000 FanDuel)
As I mentioned earlier, I don’t think this conference is very strong at the top, which makes this tournament feel wide open. Because of that, I’m looking at a long shot, and the team for me is Marquette at +6000. The Golden Eagles have quietly been playing very good basketball over the last month. Since the start of February, they rank 10th in the country in defensive efficiency, and that kind of defense can win games in a conference tournament setting. On top of that, they have arguably the best guard in the league in star freshman Nigel James Jr., who is capable of taking over a game late.
Storyline to Watch
If Providence beats Butler, we could get a rematch between St. John’s and Providence, which would easily be the most heated matchup of the tournament. The last time these two played, Duncan Powell delivered a cheap shot on former Friar Bryce Hopkins, which led to a brawl, six ejections, and Powell being suspended for three games. If these teams meet again, expect a hostile atmosphere and must-watch television, because there is clearly no love lost between these programs.
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