Bo Nix: A surprising projection for Broncos QB’s rookie season

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In arguably the worst-kept secret in the football world, Sean Payton finally showed his hand and named coveted rookie Bo Nix as the Broncos’ starting quarterback.

When Jarrett Stidham topped the depth chart for much of training camp, Nix’s promotion was the most foregone of foregone conclusions. The poorly spun Denver drama scored a 17% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

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With the inevitable declaration finally out in the open, SuperFlex and 2QB drafters who were slightly wavering on Nix’s services can now invest with increased confidence. However, the question now becomes what kind of fantasy value will the Oregon product yield in his inaugural campaign.

This inaccurate prognosticator’s answer may surprise even the most staunch doubter.

Nix is bound to turn a profit. No, it’s not on par with buying Amazon at two bucks a share, but for those who choose to buy the penny stock at his 184.61 ADP (QB29), sizable gains are in the forecast. He’s also worth a sprinkle at +1100 (FanDuel) to secure Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Why? Here are four reasons.

Scoring duality: Among this year’s rookie class, Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams are likely to generate greater across-the-board statistical production, but Nix’s multidimensionality won’t go unnoticed. Last year at Oregon, he finished No. 1 in adjusted completion percentage among all FBS passers. Sure, it came against several suspect defenses in the now-defunct Pac-12, but against a solid Utah defense, he completed 77.4% of his attempts and totaled three touchdowns (two pass, one run). In the preseason (mostly against backups), Nix displayed the processing, decision making, arm strength and accuracy required to compile numbers in the NFL. As for his rushing upside, he’s more than just an opportunistic scrambler. In his final college season, he ran for 234 yards on 54 carries in 14 games. It’s buyable Nix will log occasional 25-plus-yard rushing outbursts. In total, 250-350 yards with 3-5 TDs are bankable.

Denver defense: Though cornerback is a likely strength, the Broncos won’t exactly whinny in other defensive areas. ESPN’s Mike Clay projects Vance Joseph’s unit as the second worst in the NFL. Spankings could occur often. Given the expected frequent deficits — Clay projects a 40% or greater win probability for Denver in only four games — NIx’s per-game volume could burst eardrums and box scores. If he suits up all 17 games, 500 pass attempts is a likely floor. In fantasy, more opportunities generally leads to more scoring.

Offensive line: The buffet closers manning the trenches is one of the few Broncos roster bright spots. Several trusted forecasters believe Denver is a top-10 overall unit. Whether his line pancakes oncoming pass rushers between the hashmarks or cuts dudes down on designed runs, Nix should keep his jersey relatively clean. If the big uglies execute at a high level, it undoubtedly enhances the chances for him to register meaningful numbers. Give him pocket time, and secondary shreddings will occur.

Late-season schedule: Injuries and ineptitude always play an influential role. By the time Christmas holiday decorations are hung, team performance often looks very different from what was anticipated in August. Still, during the regular season’s home stretch, Nix has strong odds of making his mark. In Weeks 11 to 18, Nix is scheduled to square off against the Falcons, Raiders, Colts and Chargers — all defenses with major questions. Clashes against Cleveland (Week 13) and at Cincinnati (Week 17) won’t be red-carpet rollouts. Still, according to FF Toolbox, Nix’s slate in Weeks 11 through 15 is the fifth-easiest among fantasy QBs. Maximize the matchups.

Admittedly, Nix is for the deep-league crowd. In 10- or 12-team single QB formats, he’s destined to wade in the free-agent pool until the bye weeks kick in .. or will he?

The receiving arsenal isn’t the greatest, but if Tim Patrick steps up and suitably complements Courtland Sutton, the WR unit could at least perform adequately.

Bo knows ball. Bet on him to exceed low expectations en route to approximately 3300-3500 passing yards, 18-22 passing TDs, 250-350 rushing yards and 3-5 rushing TDs.

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