In the final season of college football’s 4 team playoff format, the committee faces their toughest task yet. 4 teams remain unbeaten, which has never occurred so late in the year, and the one loss teams all have cases to make too. Without a doubt, the powers that be wish they could bump the impending 12 team playoff up a year, because with one week of games remaining, the Final 4 is the furthest thing from being set.
Entering conference championship week, 8 teams remain alive for a bid. Any way you cut the outcome of Saturday’s games, there will likely be riots in the streets of a couple of college campuses, and they won’t have anything to do with the Middle East. An Eight team playoff would simply be too logical for an organization like the NCAA.
Using WagerWire’s proprietary future’s value tracker, let’s examine the ‘Elite Eight’ and their National Title Odds heading into Conference Championship Saturday.
#1 Georgia
Current Value of a $100 Futures Bet: $133
Current Odds to win Natty: +200
The Dawgs sit atop the playoff rankings, and rightfully so, with an undefeated regular season coming off last years dominant National Title run. Until proven otherwise, this is the premier team in college football. Kirby Smart has his group on a Bama like run, reloading every year and beating down everyone in their path. The difference with this years Georgia team is two-fold. Carson Beck replaced Stetson Bennett, and while he has more physical ability than Bennett could dream of, he is less experienced and more prone to making mistakes in big moments. Secondly, this team played nobody this year, and has yet to be truly tested. Those two components could lead to some chaos against Nick Saban, who will surely throw the kitchen sink at his arch rivals on Saturday afternoon. With that in mind, Georgia is favored by 6 Saturday and looking to repeat last years SEC Championship game performance. With Brock Bowers back in the fold, I anticipate them doing just that. While a total route may not be in order, Alabama has been squeaking by the likes of Auburn, Arkansas, and others all year. They aren’t at the peak of their powers either, and it would take a career showing from Jalen Milroe to get the job done. That would cause some beautiful chaos, but more on that later. For now, give me George to advance the another playoff, where they should be favored in each game the rest of the way.
The Move: HOLD
#2 Michigan
Current Value of a $100 Futures Bet: $386
Current Odds to win Natty: +185
In one of the biggest regular season games in College Football and thus American History, Michigan knocked out their biggest rivals in front of a jam-packed Big House. The Game lived up to its name, and the Harbaugh-less Wolverines rammed their way into another BIG10 Championship. Unfortunately for us all, the lifeless Iowa Hawkeyes await Saturday night, as they punted their way through a painfully weak BIG10 West and into a spot where they go in as 23.5 point Underdogs. Not only do I see Michigan covering that spread comfortably, but I have a hard time envisioning Iowa finding the end zone at all, never mind entering Field Goal range. Of all 8 teams with hope remaining, the Wolverines are the surest bet to get to the Final Four, evidenced by having the lowest odds to win it all of anyone. It would take a natural disaster on one sideline of Lucas Oil Stadium for Michigan to fall in this matchup, and with a perfect season intact, this team will go into the playoff fired up and looking to bounce back from last-years turnover filled heartbreak against TCU. With Jim Harbaugh back on the sidelines, the Wolverines are dangerous. With a win, and then a likely scenario of avoiding Georgia in the first round of the playoff, I like grabbing the Maze and Blue at their current value. That obnoxious fan base should already be booking their flights to Houston for January 8th.
The Move: BUY
#3 Washington
Current Value of a $100 Futures Bet: $163
Current Odds to win the Natty: +2500
Led by Heisman hopeful Michael Penix Jr., this has been a magical season for the undefeated Washington Huskies. In a loaded Pac 12, U Dub has managed to skate by unscathed, with ranked wins over Oregon, USC, Utah, and Oregon State along the way. Even their win over Arizona looks more impressive now. When all hope looked lost against the Ducks last month, this team rallied, and continued to find ways to win all the way through a hard fought Apple Cup last Saturday night. While nothing can be taken away from them this year, I see this dream crashing to a halt on Friday Night in Vegas, and the oddsmakers feel the same way. Despite a Win in their first matchup, the Huskies are 9.5 dogs on a neutral field! The longshot odds to win the whole thing tell even more of the story, as it is hard to picture this team matching up with Michigan, or the SEC champion. A great story on the West Coast all year, but not a team built to go the distance. For that reason, despite the extremely high upside on a futures ticket, I’ll cash in and make my 1.63x return before this dream goes bust Friday Night.
The Move: SELL
#4 Florida State
Current Value of a $100 Futures Bet: $89
Current Odds to win the Natty: +3500
The loss of Jordan Travis cuts deep, not only for FSU fans but for sports fans in general. The Seminoles were playing great ball, and had the tools to go the distance, but without their QB, it’s not happening. Even in the win over the Gators last Saturday, Tate Rodemaker looked in over his head, and it would be unfortunate to have to watch him get manhandled in the first round of the playoff. In an ideal world, the ‘Noles fall to Louisville Saturday night, allowing a team at full strength to leapfrog them into the big dance. However, if Mike Norvell finds another way to win, you can’t keep an undefeated ACC Champ out of the party, can you? Throw in a beatdown over #5 ranked LSU to start the year, and this team has done far too much to ignore them come the final rankings show. We have seen Ohio State get a bid with their third string QB which worked out pretty damn well in Cardale Jones, so I don’t understand why FSU wouldn’t get similar treatment. Sure the ACC is down, but you can only play and win the games on your schedule, which is what they have done. FSU has to remain in the top 4 if they pull out a W as 2.5 point favorites in Charlotte. For my money, it’s not happening. Chaos generally ensues, and this domino would get things started. A Louisville Win opens the door for Oregon, Texas, Bama, and even Ohio State, and creates a ridiculous circumstance which they brought upon themselves with this 4 team “playoff” that we can’t wait to get rid of next year. If you are holding that FSU ticket, congratulations on an awesome prediction, and I am terribly sorry for an unfortunate injury, but you would be wise to sell out of your position before it falls to $0.
The Move: SELL
#5 Oregon
Current Value of a $100 Futures Bet: $517
Current Odds to Win the Natty: +480
Of all the teams that might find themselves on the bubble Sunday morning, this Ducks team deserves to get in with a WIN. They are electric and rolling behind Bo Nix who is playing like 2020 Joe Burrow. If you want to talk about “best losses” Dan Lanning mismanaged his way to a 3 point loss on the road against undefeated, #3 Washington. As long as they can avenge that L Friday night, this team should jump into the mix, regardless of the FSU outcome. Unfortunately, the committee tends to lean SEC, despite the PAC12 being the best conference in the country all year. For that reason alone, the Ducks are not a sure thing to get in. Yet, their lone blemish aside, Oregon has curbstomped everyone in their path, no matter which color uniforms they go with, and who doesn’t want to see what Phil Knight pulls out of the bag in the College Football playoff? As HEAVY favorites on Friday night, we expect Oregon to roll into the CFP at either 3 or 4. While they have the weapons on offense, can we expect them to get stops against a team like Georgia or Michigan who will dominate them up front? Their current futures value sits as the highest of anyone left on the market and presents a good opportunity to cash in at a profit. With that said, I want to give this team a chance to go further. That value will rise with a win this weekend, and then give you time to reconsider before letting it ride in the first round of the playoffs.
The Move: HOLD
#6 Ohio State
Current Value of a $100 Futures Bet: $14
Current Odds to Win the Natty: +8000
With Saturday’s devastating loss to Michigan for a third straight season, Ohio State's title hopes are all but dashed. While the Buckeyes currently sit ahead of Texas and Alabama, they are the one team without the chance to build on their resume this weekend. In all likelihood THE Game was their playoff moment, and THE Ohio State fell completely flat again. Ryan Day managed to sneak his way in last year, but it would take utter chaos for the Buckeyes to make their way back into the final 4. The wins over Penn State and Notre Dame don’t carry enough weight to overcome their current situation. The Buckeyes very slim chances rest on absolute mayhem on Saturday. They likely need an FSU loss, a Michigan loss, a Texas Loss, and Washington to win. Even then it would be tough to make the argument for a team that didn’t reach their conference title game. While it remains yet another example of the complete ridiculousness of a 4 team playoff, it is the reality for one more season. OSU had their chance to play their way against Michigan, and they didn’t get it done. They’ll likely be the first ones to tell you that The Game defined their whole season anyway, and so it would be hard to put them in over other deserving teams playing for a chance to win their conferences this weekend. All of that said, I would spend $14 to root for CHAOS, every day of the week.
The Move: BUY
#7 Texas
Current value of a $100 Futures Bet: $210
Current Odds to win the Natty: +1000
I can already picture the protesting on the streets of ATX, when Bama knocks off Georgia and leapfrogs the Longhorns who beat them in Tuscaloosa all the way back in Week 2. At #7 in the latest CFP ranking, the road for Texas to crack the top 4 is tough but plausible. However, having to play a low ranked Oklahoma State team instead of getting another crack at OU doesn’t help the cause. I would not put it past Sark to find a way to blow this one, but Texas has been rolling lately, and would be extremely deserving if they can finish off the Big12 this Saturday. However, the way things currently look, they will need to be convincing in a win over the Pokes and get some help in the afternoon. That W over Bama is nice, but if Bama falls flat against UGA, it won’t do as much for the committee. Alternatively, if Bama beats Georgia, the committee may point to the Texas Loss as coming early enough to be irrelevant to the final rankings. A complete mess is on the table, and there's a very real chance Texas gets the short end of it. If Oregon beats Washington in a close game, does Texas hop 1-Loss Washington? Can Texas hop FSU if they win a close one? Who knows, but any way you slice it, the Horns needs a lot to go right this weekend, and I don’t think its happening. A great season in Austin, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles some times. If i’m holding a UT ticket, I am quick to doubling my money, and re-investing elsewhere.
The Move: SELL
#8 Alabama
Current value of a $100 Futures Bet: $84
Current Odds to win the Natty: +1000
Nick Saban will get a chance to put his politician hat on if Bama can pull the upset Saturday. A Win for the Tide would be the best W of any team in the last two seasons, and give Nick another chance to lobby for his team to get in. A Win also opens the door for a 2 SEC team playoff, as many think Georgia has done enough win or lose to deserve a bid. Yet if Bama rolls, Georgia is left without any great wins based on the lackadaisical schedule they played all year long, which begs the question of if a 0 SEC team playoff is possible?! Because, how can Alabama get in over Texas, if Texas beat them in their home stadium. If you ignore that, then why would anyone schedule those great non conference games we all love in the regular season? Why even play the season at all?!? An absolute shit show is impending for the committee, but again, we live for this type of chaos. Alabama pulled off a miracle 4th and 31 to beat a mediocre Auburn team, and a few weeks prior to that, snuck away with a 3 point win against lowly Arkansas. Yet, this is Alabama, and Nick Saban can out-scheme anybody on the planet for one game with everything on the line. Jalen Milroe has become a capable passer, a far cry from where he was in Week 2-3, and we’re still talking about a team loaded with future NFL players. I think Bama is a live Underdog Saturday, and if the chips fall into place, is the committee going to ignore Saban’s pleas for a second straight year? It might cause a bi-partisan riot in Austin, but if Alabama wins, theres absolutely a world where they ump Texas, OSU, the loser of Washington vs Oregon, and all they need is an FSU Loss at night to make their way to the CFP. With Nick Saban pulling the strings, I'll bite every day of the week and twice on Saturday.
The Move: BUY
Trying to break down who gets in to the 4-team playoff makes my head spin. Luckily, it’s not my job and I don’t envy the committees position at all. Whatever they decide will be wrong in someones eyes. All we can control is the value of our own portfolio's, and how we would play a future scenario using WagerWire.