On and around Key Number of -3 Since 2021

There is so much talk amongst NFL bettors of how important coming on or off the 3 is when it comes to sports betting.  I wanted to do a deeper dive into the spreads around this number and see if the line’s makers are trying to tell us something one way or the other.  Here is the data I uncovered from the last 3 seasons.  This is based on the closing numbers from ScoresAndOdds.  I wanted to look back to the start of 2021 because that eliminated the 2020 COVID year with no fans (which had an impact on spreads) and I think was the beginning of the public bettors shaping lines since the legalization of sports betting has evolved since 2018.

When Spread is -3

The first data point I examined was how teams were against the spread when the favorite was -3.  2021 was an extremely difficult year for the favorites at this mark, especially as a home favorite of -3.  Outside of that year, it has been pretty flat with a slight edge to the favorites in this spot.

When Spread is -3.5

I recently heard a radio analyst say, a favorite of -3.5 is a strong favorite and under 3 they are a weak favorite.  I’d consider the same thing on the road.  This year that has spoken true, but overall in the last 3 years, it is right around even.  There is no edge here blindly taking the favorite or dog.

When Spread is -2.5 or less

“Weak” home favorites (a favorite of less than a field goal), appear to be a losing strategy.  Although, not a strong enough case to blindly fade them, these weak favorites are lined under a field goal for a reason.  An old wise guy once told me, take small dogs at home.  I did this for a few years when I was a rookie at betting and was finding myself losing.  These figures point to the reason why.  Surprisingly the road favorite of under a field goal has been a profitable betting strategy over the last 3 years. My thinking would be if I can go back further, it would further support my hypothesis on this strategy.

Conclusions

The 3 may be the most crucial number when it comes to NFL sports betting.  With 12 pushes over the last 3 years when the closing spread has been on the 3, you can see why it does matter so much and how important it can be if you are early grabbing the extra ½ point on the dog or laying ½ point less.  From my overall analysis, the best bet is the short favorites on the road.  More data would yield greater results.  I will circle back on this data in a few years and see what else can be uncovered.

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