Chicago Bears: 2024 best prop bets and fantasy draft value
The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Chicago Bears.
Fantasy value — D’Andre Swift, RB (ADP: 105.71, RB24)
For those who adhere to the zero RB approach, Swift has to top the wish list. The profit potential built into his ultra-affordable ADP in 12-team, 0.5-PPR formats is enormous.
Underutilized in previous stints with Detroit and Philadelphia, the well-traveled RB has always possessed a three-down package. He can perform effectively whether grinding out tough yards between the tackles, consuming hashmarks as a receiver or dirtying his nose to protect his QB.
Yes, Swift underwhelmed in several advanced metrics last season in a ground-friendly Eagles system. He landed outside the position’s top 30 in yards created per touch (2.68, RB51) and YAC per attempt (2.42, RB54). One bright spot, however, was his RB14 finish in total missed tackles forced (43). Again, he’s underrated.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Matt Eberflus described the veteran as a “weapon back” in early June. And, no, he wasn’t referencing a water pistol. The Bears head coach staunchly believes Swift can operate on any down or distance as a runner or receiver. Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson will play small roles, but it’s increasingly likely the hyped rusher earns 16-18 touches per game this fall.
In a completely remodeled Chicago offense, Swift is a light bulb that’s destined to burn brightly. Ball-parking 1300-1350 total yards with 6-8 touchdowns isn’t reckless optimism.
Prop pick — Caleb Williams most rookie passing yards (+100, Caesars)
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In this golden era of sports betting, the creative options are endless. Every sportsbook offers unique position dissections, churning out markets not remotely available even three years ago. And for those with a keen eye and willingness to take the plunge, the new opportunities are often highly exploitable.
The future above on the Bears’ prized pick in last April’s NFL Draft is a prime example.
Some may argue Jayden Daniels (+250), Bo Nix (+500), J.J. McCarthy (+500) or Drake Maye (+1600) will challenge Williams in rookie passing yards this season, but if he remains upright for at least 15 games, the former USC Trojan — with short sword in hand — should skewer the competition. Honestly, in that scenario, it should be a rout.
Williams’ nonexistent competition, off-platform abilities, top-10 offensive line and bevy of destructive weapons — D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet and Swift — are all the evidence a novice needs to fire off a ticket. Equally important, Chicago owns the ninth-easiest fantasy schedule for quarterbacks.
Unbelievably, Mitchell Trubisky — yep, that once sorrowful franchise representative — holds the Bears rookie record for passing yards in a season with 2,193. Williams, who ranked No. 15 among all FBS passers in adjusted completion percentage last year, could break that low-hanging mark around midseason. Roughly 3500-3700 passing yards is highly achievable for Chicago’s young game changer.
Team lean — Bears UNDER 9.5 wins (-155, BetMGM)
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As someone who once had a sweet Walter Payton Kangaroos poster plastered on my bedroom wall, it’s possible reverse psychology is being deployed here.
Definitely more true Monsters instead of Mice of the Midway, the Bears’ roster construction is the most appealing it's been in decades. They have a projected top-10 offensive line, top-10 receiving corps and top-half defense.
Eberflus’ bunch owns the eighth-easiest overall strength of schedule. However, ESPN’s Mike Clay gives Chicago a 55% or greater win probability in nine games, which, objectively speaking, appears spot on.
Question this Dick Butkus jersey owner’s fandom all you want, but 8-9 wins are most realistic.
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