Cincinnati Bengals: 2024 best prop bets and fantasy draft value
The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Cincinnati Bengals.
Fantasy value — Chase Brown, RB (ADP: 138.94, RB37)
Admittedly, Orange and Blue courses vigorously through this scribe's veins. Zack Moss trumpeters will shun any argument for Brown, but the second-year back from Illinois is equipped with the hands, open-field explosiveness and wiggle to inflict serious damage. His skill set is reminiscent of a young Austin Ekeler.
As witnessed in spurts last year, Brown is capable of getting down for fantasy purposes, especially as a FLEX option in 12-team and deeper leagues. He totaled only 19.5% of the opportunity share, but as his ridiculous 5.64 yards created per touch proves, he made the most of his limited looks. His RB12 finish in fantasy points per opportunity and RB17 standing in YAC per attempt (3.27) present major clues of what he’s capable of.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
Entering training camp, the full expectation for Brown is to supplant starter Moss roughly 8-12 times per game. If that's the case, approximately 800 combined yards with 4-6 touchdowns and 45+ receptions are achievable. In the deeper rounds, he’s a sensational depth addition in a dynamite Cincinnati offense featuring a borderline top-10 offensive line.
I-L-L! I-N-BUY!
Prop pick — Joe Burrow OVER 27.5 passing touchdowns (-115, Caesars)
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He might be lobbying to have a Team USA flag football team roster spot, but with red flags about his health buried, the modern-day Joe Cool is primed for a tackle-football comeback.
In 10 restricted games last year, Burrow tossed only 15 touchdowns. However, his top-five finish in red-zone accuracy and red-zone completion percentage implied the back-to-back 30+ TD seasons in 2021 and 2022 were certainly no anomalies. He still has an elite WR1 in Ja’Marr Chase, strong WR2 in Tee Higgins and potential dark-horse catch suppliers in Mike Gesicki, Jermaine Burton and Brown.
Yes, the fantasy football strength of schedule isn’t the friendliest. Cincinnati has the fourth-toughest slate, according to FF Toolbox. Still, Burrow’s talents, strong physical state and supporting cast arrows to a 30-TD return.
Team lean — Bengals OVER 10.5 wins (-134, Caesars)
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If you’re buying into a Bengals bounce-back and believe they’ll grab 11 or more wins, just sprinkle a little something on them to beat Baltimore in the AFC North race. The +165 odds at Caesars for that to happen are very attractive. It’s certainly possible. ESPN’s Mike Clay projects a 53% or higher win probability for Cincinnati in 13 games.
Ultimately, a Week 16 home clash with Cleveland and a Week 18 road matchup at Pittsburgh could determine the above prop. For the Bengals, with a top-half defense and top-five offense, a dozen wins are bankable. As always, it’s all about critical players staying upright.