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No. 12 Clemson (10-3) at No. 5 Texas (11-2)
Date: Saturday, December 21
Time: 4 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
The pick — Clemson +12 (-110, DraftKings)
This isn’t my favorite bet of the season, but I believe there’s enough value in the number to take a shot at betting against a Texas team that I’m lower on than most.
Despite being the No. 5 seed and needing to win four games to win the national championship, the Longhorns are the College Football Playoff’s co-favorites at +360 with No. 1 seed Oregon. The path of a home game against Clemson, the Peach Bowl against Arizona State and a semifinal played three hours away in Arlington to make the title game is as good of a draw as Texas could’ve asked for after losing 22-19 to Georgia in overtime of the SEC championship.
The Longhorns have a hot-shot play caller in head coach Steve Sarkisian, an experienced QB in Quinn Ewers and plenty of talent on both lines from years of high-level recruiting. It wouldn’t surprise me if Texas won it all in Atlanta on Jan. 20, but I have some doubts if it will actually be able to do it.
A big part of my questions with the Longhorns and why they could be overvalued is the schedule they played this season. Texas’ marquee non-conference win was a 31-12 victory at Michigan in Week 2, but the Wolverines were offensively inept and had a huge drop-off on defense from their 2023 national championship squad.
In SEC play, the Longhorns faced six of the seven teams that had a conference record of 4-4 or worse. Their other regular-season games were a 30-15 home loss against Georgia and a 17-7 road win against a Texas A&M team that also benefited from a favorable schedule.
When it had an opportunity to avenge its regular-season loss to Georgia, Texas lost again despite having a halftime lead when the Bulldogs needed to turn to backup quarterback Gunner Stockton after Carson Beck sustained an elbow injury.
The other doubt I have about the Longhorns is their starting QB — Ewers.
Texas’ offense was able to move the ball on Georgia in Atlanta but got bogged down in Bulldogs territory. That has been an issue dating back to last season. Also, Ewers threw a terrible interception in that game, and I wonder if Arch Manning’s presence has affected the confidence of Ewers, who knows he could be benched if he struggles.
Clemson is definitely not a perfect team. The Tigers lost three games and needed a win over SMU in the ACC championship to steal a playoff spot, but they are the type of team I don’t mind backing as a big underdog. Clemson still recruits well, so there’s enough talent where it won’t be overwhelmed by the Longhorns’ talent.
Tigers QB Cade Klubnik is an Austin native who will be looking to make the most of an opportunity in his hometown. Klubnik’s Austin Westlake defeated Ewers’ Southlake Carroll 52-34 in a Texas state high school championship game in January 2021, which I’m sure is a storyline that will be brought up on the TNT broadcast.
Dabo Swinney is a head coach with CFP experience who embraces the underdog role, and his team to can play loose while all the pressure is on Texas.
Maybe the Longhorns turn field goals into touchdowns when they get into Clemson territory and win this game by margin. However, I’m willing to pay to see that and take the Tigers against the spread on Saturday.
Season record: 25-25-1, +0.29 units
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