I tread somewhat lightly in the early part of football season and use it as a learning experience. Not only are there questions with who is good and who is bad, the transfer portal has caused a big disruption on who is on what team and who meshes well with their new team. On top of that, lines for week 1 games have been up for many weeks and months with numerous bets fine tuning the lines. For example, the under in Minnesota and Nebraska dropped by 4 points and Utah and Florida dropped by 6 points by game day. Although both of the unders came home last night no matter what number you got, that won’t always be the case.
Unders should be looked as the main plays this weekend. Unders went 7-4 yesterday.
Buffalo Bulls @ Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin -27.5
Total 53.5
Big line move here from -23.5 to -27.5. Some books have even gone to -28. I would be this if you can get -27.5 or better. After that the value is gone. Pros have been on this for a while. 88% of the money and 76% of the bets are backing them. Wisconsin is supposed to be a very strong team this year and compete for the Big 10 West. I can see them winning that. Buffalo has lost a lot of talent and has a big turnover. I think this is a big difference in class.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders @ #4 Alabama Crimson Tide
Tide -39.5
Total 51.5
Every Alabama big spread seems to come down to a couple points. I am going to avoid this and come at things from a slightly different angle with half time and 1st quarter bets. I found Alabama -23.5 for the first half and -9.5 for the first quarter. I’ll be placing a bet on both and really like the first quarter.
Notable splits that may lead to a wager
Northern Illinois +8.5 catching 74% of the money and only 33% of bets
Under 49 Texas A&M catching 40% of the money but only 14% of bets
Under 49 Penn State/WVU catching 63% of the money but only 27% of bets
Under 45.5 Illinois/Toledo catching 86% of the money but only 43% of bets
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