Week 1 is about selectively finding UNDERS to back. This week more than others, tends to be lower scoring (teams just getting into the flow of things). Pair this with the new clock rule, and we have a recipe for some unders to cash.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-0) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-0)
Minnesota -7
Total 42.5 - 43.5
The total has been on the move crashing from 46.5 down to as low as 42.5 at some shops. A big reason for this is the weather forecast. It is calling for winds 15-20 mph. This depletes scoring in an already low score expecting game. I really like the under here, but wouldn’t bet this lower than 43. Pros are backing the Under with only 38% of the bets, but 63% of the money. It looks like they are also trying to back the dog, with 75% of the money and 66% of bets on the Cornhuskers. I support this play as well and would love to see a +7.5.
Florida Gators (0-0) @ Utah Utes (0-0)
Utes -4 or -4.5
Total 44 or 44.5
These numbers have been all over the place. The spread opened as high as 10.5 or the summer and the total was 50.5. The main reason for this is Utah’s Quarterback situation. Cam Rising had a torn ACL back in January and there is a ton of question whether he will be playing on Thursday. I don’t think he should play and my guess would be he won’t. The market seems to think he will not be playing and has moved this line a few points just in the past day. I am really hoping this line goes to 3 upon confirmation. But this confirmation may not even come until 10 minutes before the game. Utah may be a play for me, but I won’t make it official until gameday.
Louisville Cardinals (0-0) @ Georgia Tech (0-0)
Cardinal -7 or -7.5
Total 48.5 or 49
This line feels short to me but it really makes me wonder why it is set where it is. I’m a bit high on Louisville this year and have a futures ticket on the over in win total. I really don’t see Georgia Tech winning this game. The splits are more skewed to G-Tech with only 34% of the bets backing them but taking 46% of the money. Spread feels fishy to me, and fading the public on Friday’s is generally a good idea. It would be Louisville for me if I had to but that is just a forced pick.
Stanford Cardinal (0-0) @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (0-1)
Cardinal -3.5
Total 57.5 - 58.5
Hawaii played an extremely competitive game last week vs Vanderbilt. Money has come in on them and the under. Just 38% of bets are on the Warriors but 55% of the money is. 84% of the money is on the under and 71% of the bets are. 63 points were scored vs Vandy last week, but 35 points were scored with 13:03 left in the 2nd quarter. Then things slowed down. I think Hawaii can win this game outright. I’ll snag this before it goes any lower and will also be looking towards another under here.
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