Friday
Virginia (0-2) (1-1 ATS) @ Maryland (2-0) (0-2 ATS)
Maryland -14.5
Maryland hasn’t played a quality opponent yet this year and today should be no different. Virginia is one of the worst teams in college football in my opinion. Virginia is coming off an emotional game last week where they honored their teammates that were shot in 2022. This could be a flat spot for Virginia who is already an awful team. The betting market and public tend to agree (72% handle/68% bets). This line is starting to creep up to 15 at some shops. Monitor where this line moves.
Saturday
Penn State (2-0) (2-0 ATS) @ Illinois (1-1) (0-2 ATS)
Penn State -14.5
Penn State -14.5 Surprised to see this number so low. PSU is 2-0 ats this year and 11-3-1 since 2022. They are one of the best teams covering and HC Jimmy Franklin (although I despise him) doesn't tend to take his foot off the gas. The market agrees with majority of bets and money on the Lions. This line is also creeping up a bit. I like this up to -17.
Syracuse (2-0) (2-0 ATS) @ Purdue (1-1) (1-1 ATS)
Syracuse -2.5
Purdue is tough to trust after a home loss vs Fresno State and just a small win vs a bad Virginia Tech team. Syracuse is showing their strength with 2 blow out wins. Number seems too short and think there is some value there. Majority of the money is backing this (83% handle/80% bets).
South Carolina (1-1) (1-1 ATS) @ Georgia (2-0) (0-1-1 ATS)
Georgia -27.5
Heard a trend that when a team is +/- 2 or more turnovers and double digit favorites they are 33-54-2 ATS since last year. Georgia qualifies for that this week. I haven’t necessarily been impressed with either team so far this year. Just going to hold my nose and take the points in this one. Hoping this line creeps up to 28 or higher by kick.
Other plays leaning towards:
UNC/Minnesota Under 51 (73% handle vs 59% bets)
Pitt/West Virginia Under 48 (72% handle vs 58% bets)
Duke -18 over Northwestern
LSU -9.5 over Mississippi St (88% handle vs 48% bets)
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