#6 Penn State (4-0) (4-0 ATS) @ Northwestern (2-2) (2-2 ATS)
PSU -26.5
Total 45.5 - 47
Wide ranges on the total. I’m not expecting much scoring from Northwestern. One angle that I heard that makes some sense is playing Northwestern’s team total under 8.5. I can’t for the life of me understand why for the first quarter, Penn St is only -6.5. Even at -135 odds, this feels like a steal and I am forced to play it as a best bet. This feels like a sleepy number that the books didn’t put much thought into, with a first quarter total of 9.5.
#8 USC (4-0) (2-2 ATS) @ Colorado (3-1) (2-2 ATS)
USC -21.5 - 22.5
Total 72.5
I expect points in this one, but it makes me a bit worried that the money 73%/62% bets are on the under. After Colorado only putting up 6 points last week, it makes me question how good their offense really is. A few different ways of attack: USC team total over 47.5 or USC team total first half over 24.5. I literally just watched this jump up to 26.5 on draftkings as I was writing this so someone else caught this too.
Pittsburgh (1-3) (0-4 ATS) @ Virginia Tech (1-3) (1-3 ATS)
Pitt -2.5
Total 40.5
If there was ever a game for Pitt to get right and a win, it would be this week. Neither team is very good and this low total makes sense. Pitt has not named a starting QB yet. I think whoever Pitt starts can get the offense going a bit vs a poor team. Pitt also has a steady running game that shined at the beginning of the UNC game last week. 83% money/62% bets are backing the Panthers. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pitt get a W here.
#12 Alabama (3-1) (2-2 ATS) @ Mississippi State (2-2) (1-3 ATS)
Bama -14.5
Total 46 or 47
The Tide were able to keep the high powered offense of Ole Miss to 10 points last week. Both money and bets (94% money/90% bets) are backing the Tide. I would think Mississippi State should have a tough time scoring. Bama minus the points and a slight lean to the under would be my plays here.
West Virginia (3-1) (3-1 ATS) @ TCU (3-1) (2-2 ATS)
TCU -13.5 - 14.5
Total 51.5
This number climbed and climbed from the TCU -7 opener on Sunday. All the money has been on TCU (97%money/85% bets). TCU has played well since their loss week 1 vs Colorado. That loss has stuck with me but so has WVU’s play. I’m very surprised to see all the money and point spread go towards TCU in this spot. I was going to really like West Virginia in this spot, but this info will be keeping me away.
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