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NCAAF — 10/25/23

College Football Week 9 Betting Preview

By 
@SportsBetSplits
Betting Contributor

UMass (1-7) (3-5 ATS) @ Army (2-5) (2-4-1 ATS)

Army -9.5 or -10  Current Splits Army (92% money/78% bets)

I wouldn’t necessarily label Army an awful team, despite their poor record.  They have lost 4 straight, but 3 out of the 4 losses were to Power 5 teams in LSU, Boston College and Syracuse.  They also have a road win vs UTSA.  Umass on the other hand, continues to be a bottom feeder in college football.  This line is -10 every where except BetMGM.  Getting under 10 feels like a gift.  The market is definitely liking Army here.

Indiana (2-5) (3-4 ATS) @ Penn State (6-1) (6-1 ATS)

Penn State -31.5 or -32.5 Current Splits PSU (68%money/60% bets)

Penn State finally suffered their first ATS loss of the season last week and it seems like the perfect bounce back spot for them to bully an inferior opponent.  To give an idea of Vegas expectations, Indiana’s team total over under is 6.5.  They aren’t even expecting Indiana to put up a touchdown against this Penn State offense.  If all we are asking out of Penn State is to score in the high 30s or 40s, I don’t see how Penn State can’t cover this.  James Franklin is known to know the spread and it shows with their ATS record this year and in previous years.  You can find -31.5 at Fanduel.

BYU (5-2) (3-4 ATS) @ Texas (6-1) (3-4 ATS)

Texas -17.5  Current Splits BYU (81%money/48%bets)

This line opened at 17/17.5 at the limited opener on Sunday and was quickly bet up to 20.5 and then bet down as Texas starting QB Quinn Ewers is not expected to play. My thinking about the BYU is similar to what Lee Corso says…Not so fast.  BYU lost by 33 to an average TCU team.  I am all too familiar with BYU’s QB Kendon Slovis from his days at Pitt and he just can’t compete against good competition.  I don’t expect much from BYU in this one.  If I had to script the game, I would expect Texas defense to show up strong and Texas will try to get their ground game going.  Despite the Majority of the money on BYU (81% money/48% bets) I’ll be looking the other way with the hope of getting a -17.  For now we wait and keep it on radar. 

USC (6-2) (2-6 ATS)  @ California (3-4) (2-5 ATS)

USC -10.5 or -11  Current Splits USC (70% money/ 82% bets)

Total 66.5 - 67.5   Current Splits Under (82% money/ 56% bets)

Both teams are riding a 5 game ATS losing streak.  If you can figure out who to bet on (I’d lean Cal) please let me know.  I’m going to attack the total.  Similar to this week, money keeps coming in on the under in USC games and they continue to fly over the total.  Sometimes with luck like an OT game.  Cal has played a game in the 90s (52-40 loss to Oregon St) and 79 (58-21 win vs North Texas) and 91 (59-32 loss to Washington).  I just don’t see how this game doesn’t go over the total, despite the under money once again.

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