With the weather finally starting to heat up across the board, we’re entering the time of year where the ball really starts to carry. That’s especially true in this matchup, where there’s an estimated 8% home run boost according to Ballpark Pal. Everything from conditions to environment is pointing toward offense, which brings us to today’s pick: Gunnar Henderson.

Merrill Kelly is making his first start of the season, so it’s unlikely Henderson sees him more than twice, but that may be all he needs. Kelly has historically struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing 17 home runs and 19 doubles in 369 at-bats last season. His pitch mix, fastball, changeup, cutter, and curveball, lines up perfectly with Henderson’s strengths. Against those pitches this season, Gunnar owns a 95 mph average exit velocity, a .414 ISO, a 6.9% barrel rate, three home runs, and a 70% fly ball/line drive rate. When he’s elevating the ball like that, he’s a serious long ball threat.

On top of that, Henderson is coming in scorching hot. Over the past week, he’s averaging a 94.5 exit velocity, and in his last game alone he hit four balls over 98.9 mph. The bat speed is there, the contact quality is there, and now the conditions are too. Everything is lining up for a big swing, and today feels like the perfect spot for Gunnar Henderson to leave the yard at Camden Yards.

The Baltimore Orioles have performed right in line with expectations so far this season, with a $100 preseason bet on FanDuel still holding steady at $100 value. They currently sit tied atop the AL East with a 9–7 record.

The Pick: Gunnar Henderson Home Run (+410 on Fanduel)

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