Tough start to the year for the Dinger of the Day, but it’s a long season, and there’s no reason to panic; the tides will turn. The weather doesn’t look great for hitters today, but sometimes it doesn’t matter when you’re backing a guy who can drive the ball through anything. That brings us to today’s pick: Nick Kurtz.

Kurtz draws a matchup against Luis Castillo, who was once dominant but hasn’t looked the same recently. The underlying numbers are concerning, with an expected ERA north of 5.50, an average exit velocity allowed of 92.5 mph (considered bottom-tier), and an 11.1% barrel rate allowed. Against left-handed hitters, Castillo leans heavily on a fastball, slider, and sinker combination, throwing those pitches around 90% of the time vs LHH.

Meanwhile, Kurtz is absolutely locked in at the plate. Over the past week, he’s been crushing right-handed fastballs, already launching two home runs against them, which is key given Castillo throws his fastball roughly 40% of the time to lefties. Over the past week he has a 100.6 average exit velocity, a 21.74% barrel rate, and a 50% fly ball rate. He’s elevating and punishing everything. Kurtz last year hit 20 of his 36 home runs vs. Luis Castillo's pitch arsenal vs. lefties.

The Pick: Nick Kurtz Home Run (+398 on DraftKings)

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