Today’s dog comes in the 12:40 PM ET matchup between Nebraska and Troy, with Troy sitting at +13.5 and +740 on the moneyline (FanDuel). Nebraska is a team I’ve been bullish on all season, even during their 20-0 start, but cracks have started to show. Since the start of February, they’re just 6-5 per Bart Torvik, ranking 35th overall with a concerning split: 133rd in offensive efficiency and 8th on defense. They’ve also been mediocre on the glass and prone to turnovers.

One major weakness: perimeter defense. Nebraska ranks 353rd in three-point rate allowed (361st on the full season), which is a glaring issue in a tournament setting. As mentioned in my Miami (OH) breakdown, three-point variance is often the catalyst for March upsets. Nebraska’s defensive scheme, particularly their “no middle” approach and aggressive ball screen traps, naturally concedes open looks from deep and creates scrambling situations that open up offensive rebounding lanes.

That plays right into Troy’s strengths. The Trojans rank 54th nationally in three-point attempt rate and won’t hesitate to let it fly. They also sit 53rd in offensive rebounding, giving them a real chance to capitalize on second-chance opportunities. If Troy can get hot from deep and win the extra possession battle, they have a legitimate path to hang around and potentially shock Nebraska.

Pick: Troy Trojans +13.5, with a sprinkle on the moneyline at +740

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