The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots will meet for the second time this season tomorrow during the early slate of the NFL’s Week 17 schedule, and there will be a lot on the line for both franchises heading into this pivotal divisional matchup. These two teams played each other to open the 2022–23 NFL season at Hard Rock Stadium and the Dolphins were able to pick up the 20–7 victory over New England to win their fourth straight matchup in the rivalry.
However, after an up-and-down season for both teams, this second meeting will be occurring under many different circumstances than the previous encounter. Both franchises will be missing multiple key pieces when they meet on Sunday, but the Miami Dolphins will be attempting to cling to their AFC Playoff hopes without their franchise QB under center.
Teddy Bridgewater will instead be getting the start for Miami, as Tua Tagovailoa will miss this key matchup after sustaining yet another head injury this season last week in the Dolphins' loss to the Green Bay Packers on Christmas Day.
During Tagovailoa’s previous three-game absence earlier in the season, the Dolphins were 0–3 and struggled mightily in portions of those games. However, Bridgewater only started and played one full game during that stretch, which was a 24–16 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on 10/16/22. Despite two costly interceptions, Bridgewater had a pretty solid outing overall in that game for a backup quarterback, completing 23/34 passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings.
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Another player with a performance to note during that against the Minnesota Vikings is Tyreek Hill, who put up an incredible stat line of 12 catches on 15 targets for 177 yards and a 14.8 yards per reception average. That is the 3rd highest yardage total of the season for Hill in his only full game of action with Bridgewater under center.
The Pro Bowl wide receiver has 113 receptions for 1,632 yards and seven touchdowns in his first season with the franchise. Hill has played New England a total of five times during his career and has found the endzone five times in those games, although he did not record a touchdown in the first Dolphins/Patriots meeting of the season.
Despite entering this pivotal matchup on a four-game losing streak, the Miami Dolphins have a couple of reasons to still be optimistic about getting a victory in Foxboro. First and foremost, the Patriots have been in the midst of their own struggles and issues, as they have dropped four of their past five games overall entering this matchup.
The Dolphins have also played surprisingly well in recent seasons when they have gone on the road to New England and have won two of the past three meetings the two teams have played at Gillette Stadium. The temperature at kickoff is also projected to be around 52 degrees, which is unseasonably slightly warm for that region, and will remove some of the usual late-season advantages the Patriots enjoy at home.
With both teams beat up and missing so many key players, I’m not sure I want much to do with betting on the winner/loser of this game. However, there are two prop bets that I will be targeting tomorrow in this matchup, and they are both related to Tyreek Hill.
Although there is extremely limited data to use, Hill seemed to enjoy having Bridgewater under center earlier this season, and more importantly, Bridgewater seemed to LOVE getting the ball to Hill as often as possible. With the Patriots missing multiple players in their secondary, I think Hill will have a very solid game tomorrow with a Pro Bowl-caliber performance against New England.
Bet that I love for this game: Tyreek Hill Over 72.5 yards (-115)
Bet that I like for this game: Tyreek Hill Anytime TD (+140)
The odds listed are from BetMGM Sportsbook