Week 2 Trends

Most bettors and the betting public make strong opinions on teams just from 1 week of action.  Some adjustments should certainly be noted.  I, for one, was completely wrong on my doubt on the San Francisco 49ers.  But this a week to week league.  A lot of overreactions take place in week 2, which creates inflated spreads.  Which alas, creates opportunities.

NO team wants to start the season 0-2.  They will fight like hell to avoid that.  One trend that speaks volume are teams that lost by 10 points or more in week 1, tend to do very well in week 2.  Both straight up and against the spread.  One reason being the motivation factor, another being over adjustments made to the lines.

Since 2014, teams that lost by 10 or more in week 1 are 63% ats.  In 2022, they were 6-0 straight up and 5-2 ats.  In 2021, they were 3-4 straight up but 5-2 ats.

Qualifying games for week 2 of this year:

Steelers +2.5 vs Browns.  A home game for Pittsburgh, I like a lot.

Bengals -3.5 vs Ravens.  Another home game for qualifying team.

Seahawks +6  @ Lions.  This spread was Lions -3 just last week

Bears +3 @ Bucs.   The Bears were previously -1.

NY Giants -5 @ Arizona Cardinals

Carolina Panthers +3 vs Saints

Texans and Colts both qualify but are facing each other this week.

Line Predictions:

Closing line value is very important in betting.  If you can get ahead of the move, you are at a distinct advantage.  I will give my predictions every week.  Some may move in that direction or not.  There is no perfect equation.

If Pittsburgh or New England every gets to +3 it will be grabbed immediately and fall back to +2.5 or +2

NY Giants may close closer to 7.  There is a rogue -4.5 out there now if you like it.

Seattle +6 I think is the best the number will be and can see it falling.

Chicago +3 seems like a really big adjustment.  I can see that falling off of the 3 sooner than later.

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