Euro 2024: Spain vs. France semifinal preview and pick

The 2024 European Championship semifinals kick off Tuesday with Spain and France meeting in Munich. France were rated as one of the best teams going into the tournament, but after five matches at Euro 2024, there has been a flip in the odds. Now, La Roja are installed as the more likely team to reach Sunday’s title game in Berlin.

Spain have been the Euros’ most aesthetically pleasing side to watch. They are coming off a dramatic quarterfinal victory over the host nation — a 2-1 extra-time win on Mikel Merino’s 119th-minute goal.

As for France, they have yet to score from open play. They beat both Austria and Belgium 1-0 on own goals and tied Poland thanks to Kylian Mbappe’s penalty. Les Bleus reached the semifinals thanks to a defense that has only conceded a penalty-kick goal against Poland and registered four clean sheets — namely last Friday against Portugal in a quarterfinal triumph won on penalties.

The pick — Spain tie no bet (-124, Caesars)

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I hoped Spain would be a slight underdog after Friday’s results so I could make this bet at closer to even money. However, I agree with the market adjustment that Spain are the better team based on how they’ve played and how France has struggled to score.

I don’t see France winning this game within 90 minutes, and that’s the outcome in which this bet would lose. If Spain prevail in the 90 minutes, the wager would win, and you get your money back if the match ends in a draw.

My only concern about Spain is the suspension of right back Dani Carvajal. His replacement could be 38-year-old Jesus Navas, who would see a lot of runs from Mbappe. The saving grace for Navas and Spain is that Mbappe hasn’t been himself since he broke his nose in France’s group opener against Austria. The mask Mbappe is wearing has clearly bothered him and impacted his play.

Navas also would have to deal with Theo Hernandez, the left back who’s heavily involved in France’s attack, but Hernandez might be forced to sit back and defend against dangerous 16-year-old Spanish winger Lamine Yamal.

Spain also will be without French-born center back Robin Le Normand for yellow card accumulation, but there isn’t a drop-off between him and expected replacement Nacho Fernandez. Also, Pedri, Spain’s 21-year-old star midfielder, is out with a knee injury. His replacement, Dani Olmo, scored and had the game-winning assist against Germany last Friday.

Betting a low-scoring draw is another option I considered for this semifinal, but I can also see an outcome with Yamal and left winger Nico Williams giving France’s backline their toughest challenge yet and producing a goal in regular time.

Euros record: 5-4-1, +5.65 units