One game into Conference Championship week, we already have a massive upset on our hands, with Washington taking down Oregon as 10 point dogs Friday Night. Vegas was dead wrong about Washington, who dominated most of the game, clinching a guaranteed bid to the college football playoff. Before most of us went to bed Friday night, we already find ourselves in a gambling hole that we’ll need to dig out of today. Let’s get the shovels out.
Big 12 Championship Game
#7 Texas needs a win and potentially some help to earn their spot in the playoff. The Horns resume includes a win in Tuscaloosa, and even though that game went down way back in September, it has to matter for something if the 4th spot comes down to a head to head with Alabama. The tight loss in the Red River Rivalry is Coach Sarks lone slip up, and while a revenge spot would have been ideal, OK State had other plans. Their upset of the Sooners in Bedlam clinched the Pokes spot in the Big 12 Championship, as they look to send Texas off to the SEC with an L.
The Longhorns have a chance to finally prove they are back once and for all and they enter this matchup as massive favorites, laying 15 points. Texas not only needs to win, but they need to do so in style. As the first game of the day, they will want to make a statement to the committee that they are peaking at the right time to remove any doubt that they deserve a spot. Oklahoma State is a boom or bust team, coming in ranked #19 in the country. They have proven they can beat good teams, but also have shown a tendency to get drubbed especially when they fall behind early. Mike Gundy is more than capable of getting his team up for big spots, as he thrives as an underdog . For that reason, I have a hard time laying the 15 points with the Longhorns. The Texas offense has been clicking of late, and the Pokes defense has massive holes in it. They let up 34 to BYU, 45 to UCF, and now go up against a Texas team with a different level of firepower.
On the other side, the OK State offense has big play potential, and will pull out all the stops to hang in this game. All of that said, I am backing Texas to come out firing. Their team total sits at 35.5, and I think they will want to leave no doubt in the mind of the playoff committee that they are one of the 4 best teams.
Pick: Texas TT Over 35.5
SEC Championship Game
In the most anticipated game of the weekend, #8 Alabama takes on the 2 time defending champion, the #1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs. It is the 4th time these two are meeting up in the SEC title game, and Nick Saban would like nothing more than to keep Georgia from three-peating as National Champs. No couch has more Wins against #1 teams than Nick Saban, who also has a career record of 10-1 in this exact game. Pretty Incredible and hard to bet against.
UGA is undefeated, but some point to their lack of a single formidable opponent when arguing that if they lose this game, they’ll be left out of the Final 4. Alabama meanwhile has looked dicey at times, including in squeaker wins over Auburn and Arkansas, but have come a long way since their early season loss to Texas. No one has come further than QB Jalen Milroe, who went from riding pine against USF, to looking like one of the 5 best players in College Football by season's end.
Carson Beck has shown massive improvement in his own right, and has Georgia’s offense rolling. There is so much talent on this field, and on the sideline it is hard to point to much of an advantage either way between Coach Saban and Smart, who know each other inside and out. The atmosphere in Atlanta will be electric and its hard to imagine this game not being one for the ages, as it always is when these two teams meet up.
The Dawgs go in as 5.5 favorites, looking to complete another perfect season. I simply can’t get myself to back one side of this line or the other. Bama will be ready, but that doesn't rule out a 7 point defeat. There are two things I envision happening, points and a dog fight. Absolutely no chance Nick Saban doesn't have the Tide Rolling. Elite offense trumps elite defense in College football, and there will be immense offensive talent on display this afternoon. I like the over, and I like a close game so I’m going to make it easier on myself with a Teaser.
The Pick: 6 pt tease - Bama +11, Over 48.5
AAC Championship Game
While nothing has the same appeal of an SEC Championship game, Uptown NOLA will be buzzing for the Green Wave as they host SMU with a second straight AAC Championship on the line. Willie Fritz continues to Win, but Tulane has not dealt with the likes of an offense like the Mustangs in a while. The one time they did, the Wave got throttled by Ole Miss back in Week 2. SMU hasn’t got much notoriety this year, but their only losses have come to TCU and Oklahoma.
If not for a devastating injury to their starting QB last week, SMU had to love their chances going into this one. Not that those chances have dissipated, but they definitely take a hit losing Preston Stone for the season. On the other side, Tulane has the AAC player on the year in Michael Pratt at QB, and he has been in big games consistently over the last couple of years. None bigger than last years Cotton Bowl against USC, where Pratt rarely let the ball hit the turf.
The line opened at Tulane -6, and has steamed all the way down to 3 in favor of the Green Wave. That tells you that people like SMU to keep it tight, but we have over-adjusted. While I admittedly don’t know much about the SMU backup QB, -3 is a number Tulane can cover at home. They have been in these spots before, and have the defense that can hold the high-powered ponies in check. Call me bias, but I’m rolling with my guys to bring home an AAC Championship for the second straight year.
The Pick: Tulane -3
ACC Championship
In the nightcap, the Undefeated Florida State Seminoles take on Louisville with a potential trip to the college football playoff on the line for FSU. The current #4 team in the nation has not lost this year, but unfortunately lost their star QB to a broken leg two weeks ago. With Jordan Travis, this team had national championship aspirations, but now will need a win with their backup QB to remain in the playoff conversation. It would be hard to justify leaving out an undefeated power 5 team, but with no QB, the Noles just aren’t one of the 4 best teams in College Football.
Louisville is no slouch this year, but flunked a major test last week to their in-state rivals. If they couldn’t contain the UK offense, how will they match up with the talent of Coleman, Wilson and Benson for the Noles? Tate Rodemaker showed that he was capable in the second half last week against the Gators, but then was lost to a head injury and remains questionable leading up to kickoff. How would a third string QB look being thrust into this big of a spot?
Jeff Brohm has led a nice turnaround in Louisville, and has the Cards looking to play spoiler in this title game. They will have no bigger fans than those in Austin, Tuscaloosa, and even Columbus, depending on what happens earlier in the day. After watching FSU struggle with a bad UF team last week, I think Louisville can come up with a game-plan to get the job done. The loss of Travis is so unfortunate, as he was obviously the major key to that offense. Without him, I think the Noles struggle and lose out on the opportunity to play for a National Title.