On the other side of the draw, the most dominant team of this tournament tips off against a team with its most impressive wins. Aside from a brief mid-season slump, one could make the argument that Dan Hurley’s UCONN Huskies have been the best team in college basketball this season. That slump did just enough to drop them to a 4 seed, but they have certainly found the form that had them ranked #2 in the nation back in December.
The advanced metrics say this team was severely underseeded, and they have done their best to prove that the last two weeks. Aside from a hot shooting Iona first half in Round 1, this team has blown the doors off everybody they faced. With double digit wins in each of their tournament games, the Huskies have established themselves as the favorite, and currently sit at -125 to cut down the nets Monday Night. If you were sharp enough to make a $100 bet on that happening prior to the season, your ticket would be worth north of $5,600.
First, they need to get by the Miami Hurricanes, led by the great Head Coach, Jim Larranaga who is paying absolutely no attention to the fact that the Canes are 5.5 point underdogs on Saturday. The Co-ACC regular season champs followed up a first round nail biting win over Drake with a drubbing of a strong IU team before cruising by #1 seeded Houston. They then put together an epic second half, stormed back to win comfortably over a red hot Texas Longhorns team.
No team has had to go through such a gauntlet which includes takedowns of teams seeded 12, 4, 1, and 2. There is no question this team has the belief they can add 4th seeded Connecticut to that resume and overcome the 4.4/1 odds they currently sit at to win the whole thing. If you threw $100 down preseason on The U, you’d be holding a ticket valued at $850 today. If they can sneak by UCONN, that value will surely skyrocket.
In order to do so, this team will need to continue to get out in transition, and shoot at an extremely high percentage. UCONN has the talent advantage, to go with a dominant big man down low, but Miami has dealt with similar disadvantages in previous rounds. They will likely implore a similar strategy against Adama Sanogo as they did against IU’s Trayce Jackson-Davis, and hope to match a similar shooting performance as they did in the second half against Texas. What they can’t afford is to spot UCONN a big lead early, which allows the Huskies to play as freely as they like to, with Sanogo dominating inside and shooters firing at will from all over the court. Unfortunately for the boys from Coral Gables, that is exactly what I think happens. Miami has been wildly impressive on the offensive end, but mediocre at best defensively. That is not going to cut it against a team with as much talent and depth as UCONN. Out-scoring Houston is one thing, but beating this Huskies team without an ability to get stops is a different story. I like UCONN to win this one, and the next one, which would imply holding onto that futures bet from the preseason, or putting one in at -125.