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This time each year, various sportsbooks begin to roll out exotic futures tied to college basketball. The Gaming Juice’s junior circuit junkie, Brad Evans, will occasionally unearth bets he believes present excellent value.
The pick — Florida to win the national championship (+1300, BetMGM)
Ask any college basketball coach in America about their primary regular-season goal, and most will tell you, “Playing peak basketball in March.”
NCAA Tournament resumes may be fueled by a full body of work, but how hot teams are playing in the days leading up to the Big Dance often predicts postseason success. After all, the MADNESS is all about draw, potential matchups and path. If you’re a coach trotting out an advantageous team that’s firing on all cylinders at the most opportune time, you’re likely to be a wrecking ball in your bracket.
Right now, the Florida Gators are exhibiting all the necessary characteristics.
[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans' latest NCAA Tournament projections ]
Coming off an impressive near buzzer-to-buzzer toppling of top-ranked Auburn at Neville Arena last Saturday — without starting guard Alijah Martin, mind you — Todd Golden’s group is rapidly ascending. Each and every future opponent is on notice, whether they’re fellow SEC members or other schools vying for NCAA tourney immortality.
Crank Tom Petty’s “Won’t Back Down,” DJ.
Earlier this week, this willing gambler finally decided to take the plunge, chomping down on a Florida national title ticket at +1300 (BetMGM). With market value about to evaporate, it was high time for the offering to enter the portfolio.
Why? Here are four reasons the Swamp won’t drain this March.
Dynamic backcourt. Martin (hip) is expected to return in short order. With Walter Clayton Jr. playing at an elite level, the duo comprises one of the country’s best 1-2 punches. Whether facilitating action or raining buckets, they’re a handful. Combined this season, the tandem has drained 35.4% on 3-pointers while averaging 6.6 assists per game and totaling a 119.6 offensive rating. “Guard play is everything” isn’t some March cliche. It’s a requirement. And the Gators have the goods.
Glass command. When it comes to generating second-chance opportunities, Florida is up there with Alabama, Illinois, Texas A&M, Auburn and Houston. Over the last month alone, the Gators have acquired an additional offensive opportunity on 36.3% of team possessions. Stretching out the entire season, Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh and Rueben Chinyelu each have tallied an offensive rebounding percentage of 11% or more. On off shooting nights, accumulated second and third chances can pay off handsomely.
Defense. In its last nine games, Florida ranks top-20 in effective field-goal percentage defense and points per possession allowed (0.945). Specifically, the Gators have yielded only 47.4% shooting on 2s and 29.8% on 3s. Their disruptive length and determination often frustrate the opposition.
Across-the-board toughness. Starting small forward Will Richard perfectly exemplifies Florida’s well-roundedness. Not only a kleptomaniac on defense, he also has shot a sensational 35.2% from distance. His 60.1% eFG rate leads the team, too. It isn’t the deepest squad, but its warrior five have the versatility and resourcefulness to hang with anyone.
Right now, Duke, Auburn and Alabama have better odds of cutting down the nets in San Antonio, but for this late-to-the-party bettor, tipping back a cup on the Gators was long overdue.
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