Friday Night Football picks: Packers vs. Eagles

Prime-time NFL games bring in the numbers — and the bets. In an attempt to boost gamer bankrolls, this only occasionally profitable bettor will attempt to stack greenbacks under the lights. As always, fade or follow — that’s up to you.

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles in São Paulo, Brazil (8:15 p.m. ET, Peacock)

Prop Play: A.J. Brown OVER 23.5 yards longest catch (-115, Caesars)

Brown is one of the game’s premier Aston Martins, a luxury vehicle packed with significant downfield horsepower. His separation skills are well-documented. Last year, according to PlayerProfiler, he ranked No. 11 in total YAC, No. 4 in total air yards, No. 6 in deep targets, No. 9 in yards per route run and No. 19 in route win percentage. Give him an inch and he’s sure to take a mile. Overall, in 17 games played last season, he racked 15 catches of 24 or more yards. In Brazil, bet on Brown booking it out of the box. His projected primary assignment, CB Eric Stokes, is more generous than the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. On 110 coverage snaps last year, he surrendered a 152.9 passer rating. The season before, he allowed an equally abysmal 124.3 passer rating. On a deep streak up the right sideline, Jalen Hurts connects with Brown for a monster gain.

SGP: Josh Jacobs 1+ reception, Saquon Barkley 1+ reception, Dontayvion Wicks 25+ receiving yards, Game UNDER 59.5 points (+150, Caesars)

Josh Jacobs 1+ reception. The cupboard is bare at running back for Matt LaFleur’s Packers. AJ Dillon is toast for the season and MarShawn Lloyd is a likely game-time decision with a tender hammy. Heck, even depth-chart dweller Emanuel Wilson is questionable. Unless Ahman Green comes out of retirement, Jacobs is slated to earn 90%+ of the team’s opportunity share. An active pass catcher with the Raiders last season, the versatile veteran ran a route on 42.9% of snaps, averaging 13.9 routes per game. In total, he snatched 37 passes, catching at least one in 12 of 13 games. Against an Eagles team that struggled mightily in Dropback EPA (No. 27) and yielded the 14th-most RB receptions last year, Jacobs flashes his mitts on at least one Jordan Love dump-off.

Saquon Barkley 1+ reception. Still exhibiting godlike quads and no longer operating in New York’s putrid offense, Barkley could undergo a career revival in the City of Brotherly Love. He’s set to operate behind a top-10 offensive line in an offense loaded with box-easing weapons. In his final season with the Giants, he ran a route on 60.9% of his snaps, hauling in one or more passes in all 14 games played. Catching at least 40 passes in all but his injury-shortened 2020 campaign, he’s likely to register a minimum of 50 receptions this year. Green Bay performed terrifically in short-field coverage last season, conceding the 11th-fewest total catches to RBs. However, just one designed flare will get it done.

Dontayvion Wicks 25+ receiving yards. Romeo Doubs’ hand contusion, which limited him in practice all week, could light the Wicks. Talked up by Love this summer, the second-year wideout owns substantial breakout potential. Shaking defenders routinely last year, he finished No. 10 among all WRs in route win percentage. Also netting a handsome 10.0 yards per target (WR10) and 14.9 yards per reception (14.9), he could be a surprise sensation in Week 1, especially if he’s lined up opposite sixth-round rookie CB Isaiah Rodgers. In 15 games in which Wicks ran at least 12 routes his rookie season, he registered 25-plus yards a dozen times. He leaves backers doing the Samba.

Game UNDER 59.5 points. In the Land of Caipirinhas, don’t bank on a blackout drunk affair. Our friends at BetAlytics have the total projected for 47.49, attaching a B- grade. In other words, the UNDER is an above-average play on the standard 48.5 line. Philly’s sketchy defense — ESPN’s Mike Clay projected it as the eighth-worst unit entering the season — is a concern. Still, Green Bay’s more unrelenting D should prevent this game from escaping the 20s.

Prop season record: 0-1, -1.10 units
SGP season record: 0-1, -1.00 units

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