Prediction markets are quickly reshaping how people engage with sports, politics and current events. Their rapid growth has created new opportunities, but it has also raised important questions about addiction, consumer protection and where the industry should draw the line.

WagerWire’s latest mental health Space, presented by NEXTPredict, featured Travis Geiger, nurse practitioner Morgan Geiger and NEXTPredict’s Nick Giangreco for a discussion about the emerging risks surrounding prediction markets.

Unlike traditional sportsbooks, prediction markets operate as peer-to-peer exchanges. Prices are determined by supply and demand, and someone must take the other side of every position. The format can feel more intuitive than traditional betting odds because probabilities are often displayed as simple percentages.

Prediction markets also offer contracts on far more than sports. Users can trade on elections, weather, entertainment and countless other real-world events. According to Giangreco, that variety has helped introduce prediction markets to consumers who may have never considered themselves traditional gamblers.

That accessibility, however, may also introduce new risks.

An Endless Stream of Opportunities

Traditional sports betting is somewhat limited by the schedule. Eventually, the games end for the night. Prediction markets can remain active around the clock, including short-term contracts that resolve within minutes.

That constant availability could become especially dangerous for someone chasing losses or struggling to control their behavior. Unlike regulated sportsbooks in many states, some prediction-market platforms may also lack mandated helplines, deposit limits and self-exclusion tools.

Morgan explained that the brain processes behavioral and substance addictions in similar ways. Whether someone is struggling with gambling, drugs, binge eating or another compulsive behavior, the underlying cycle often involves seeking relief or stimulation despite harmful consequences.

Prediction markets can make that cycle more difficult to escape because they are intertwined with everyday life. News, weather, politics and social media can all become triggers when nearly any event can carry a financial position.

Are Prediction Markets Less Predatory?

The panel found no simple answer to whether prediction markets are more or less predatory than sportsbooks.

Their exchange structure can give users greater flexibility, particularly when exiting positions. Unlike a sportsbook cash-out offer controlled by the operator, an exchange allows users to sell their position to another participant at the available market price.

At the same time, the wider selection of markets and absence of uniform responsible-gaming safeguards can increase the risk of harmful behavior.

Giangreco argued that online casinos remain among the industry’s most predatory products, especially when users are repeatedly directed toward blackjack, roulette and slots. He warned that prediction markets could cross an important line if they begin recreating those casino products inside an exchange-based format.

At that point, the technology could become little more than a new wrapper around traditional gambling.

The Illusion of Control

Prediction markets can also create a greater illusion of control. A user may believe that personal knowledge, specialized research or access to information gives them a reliable advantage.

That belief becomes particularly concerning when individuals can influence the outcome themselves. Markets involving flight cancellations, public appearances or other niche events may be more vulnerable to manipulation than major sporting events.

The conversation also addressed the ethics of trading on death, violence, war and natural disasters. While prediction markets can help businesses hedge against real-world risks, the same contracts may create troubling incentives or allow insiders to profit from information unavailable to the public.

As the number of available markets expands, platforms will face growing pressure to determine which events should be tradable and how manipulation should be detected.

Reducing the Stigma Around Seeking Help

The panel agreed that the industry must speak more openly about gambling addiction. That conversation should include mental-health professionals, industry leaders and people with firsthand experience.

Morgan closed with two questions that can help identify whether someone may need a more complete gambling assessment:

• Have you ever lied to someone important to you about how much you gamble?
• Have you ever felt the need to bet increasing amounts of money?

Answering yes may be a sign that it is time to seek additional support.

Prediction markets are unlikely to disappear. Their future will depend not only on innovation and growth, but also on whether platforms establish meaningful safeguards before harmful behavior becomes even more widespread.

If you or someone you know is struggling with gambling or another addiction, confidential support is available through Birches Health at 833-483-3838, help@bircheshealth.com or bircheshealth.com/wagerwire.

If you missed the space, you can listen here on Spotify: