With both the NBA and NHL on break, Friday night’s marquee matchup shifts to college basketball in Wisconsin. The 20–4, No. 10-ranked Michigan State Spartans travel to the Kohl Center to face the Wisconsin Badgers. The line currently sits at MSU -2.5 with a total of 146.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The Spartans opened the season at +5500 on DraftKings to win the national championship and have since moved to +4000, while the Badgers have drifted from +7000 out to +15000.

One offensive style that consistently challenges Wisconsin’s defensive scheme is a team that can create spacing and knock down perimeter shots. While Michigan State features an elite point guard in Jeremy Fears, his lack of shooting allows Greg Gard to potentially scheme something up for him that turns him into a jump shooter. The Spartans do have a stretch big in Jaxon Kohler, who is shooting 41.4% from three on the season, but he’s just 9-for-his-last-39 (23%). Expecting him to break out of that slump on the road is a risky bet. With the loss of Divine Ugochukwu, they have very limited options of guys who can stretch out the floor.

Michigan State’s biggest strength comes on the offensive glass, where they rank fifth nationally in offensive rebounding rate according to Barttorvik. However, Wisconsin counters with a strong defensive rebounding unit, sitting 20th in the country. Defensively, the Spartans rely heavily on hedging ball screens, which should force the ball out of Nick Boyd’s hands and create open perimeter looks. Over their last 10 games, the Badgers have capitalized on those opportunities, shooting a scorching 38.2% from three.

Ultimately, Wisconsin’s shot-making at home and their ability to limit second-chance opportunities give them the edge. If the Badgers control the glass and continue their recent perimeter shooting surge, they should be in a position to come away with the win.

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