Georgia vs. Texas best bets
SIGN UP: Get the best player prop and game betting projections at BetAlytics. Use code "JUICE" for a special promo rate.
No. 5 Georgia (5-1) at No. 1 Texas (6-0)
Date: Saturday, October 19
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Ben’s pick — UNDER 28.5 first-half points (-120, Caesars)
I’ll let Nate have the full game handicap because all I need is 30 sweet minutes of gross football.
Let’s start strictly with the numbers.
Georgia’s games have averaged 21.6 points per half, which is well below the proposed number. In fact, betting on a Bulldogs first-half under has been a profitable endeavor this season, hitting in four out of six games. Quite simply, this team loves to either start slow or prevent its opponent from starting fast. Texas’ games have averaged 28 first-half points, which is still below this number.
If we’re basing our expectations for this game solely on numbers, the under would be the play. But of course, numbers don’t rule everything, and the stats nerds can only tell part of the story. So we still need to look at this first half situationally.
Everyone and their grandmothers know that the Longhorns love throwing the ball. Texas is 11th in the nation in passing yards, averaging 306.5 yards per game. Given this common knowledge, I’d imagine head coach Kirby Smart’s game plan will focus heavily on pass prevention.
While this isn’t your older cousin’s Georgia pass defense, it will undoubtedly be one of the best passing defenses the Longhorns have faced all season due to a weaker schedule. The Bulldogs rank a respectable 20th in opponent EPA per dropback and 36th in opponent third and fourth down success rate. They also rank sixth in opponent EPA per rush.
Simply put, it might take a little time for Quinn Ewers and company to get going.
The wild Alabama-Georgia first half that saw 37 total points might still be on people’s minds. But that first half included two Georgia interceptions, a safety and three straight Alabama touchdown drives to start the game. The Bulldogs may not be the team they once were, but they’re still too good and too battle-tested to allow that kind of chaos to happen again in their biggest game of the year.
And if you needed even more evidence, starting games strong offensively hasn’t beenx Georgia’s strong suit. The Bulldogs rank a lowly 99th in the country in first-quarter points per game with an average of 3.4.
Texas also ranks second in the nation in opponent first-quarter points per game. So there’s a chance Georgia fails to score anything significant, while the Longhorns run into an overly prepared Bulldogs defense to start this game.
With all that in mind, give me that first-half under.
Season record: 14-11, +2.91 units
Nate’s picks — Georgia +5 (-110, DraftKings), OVER 56 total points (-110, DraftKings)
This is the biggest game of the week and potentially of the season in the SEC, so I’m going to give out two bets.
After Georgia lost to Alabama in Week 5, I was looking forward to backing the Bulldogs as an underdog in Austin. I was impressed how Georgia was able to overcome a 28-0 deficit to eventually take a brief lead in a night game at Alabama.
However, falling behind by four touchdowns and losing to the Crimson Tide hasn’t aged well in the last two weeks. In its next game, Alabama proceeded to get upset 40-35 by Vanderbilt and then only beat South Carolina 27-25 at home last week. The Bulldogs went on to win in a non-cover against Auburn and then beat Mississippi State, the worst team in the SEC, 41-31.
Because of those results and Texas being undefeated, the point spread for Saturday’s game is north of a field goal in favor of the Longhorns. I’m going to take my chances on Georgia because I still believe it is one of the best teams in the country and I question Texas’ strength of schedule so far.
Another bet I like in this game is the over. The Bulldogs’ offense has been better than its defense this season, and they have a chance to test a Longhorns secondary that hasn’t faced a good pass offense. Texas’ most impressive victories on paper were against Michigan and Oklahoma, who both lack any threat through the air.
Georgia QB Carson Beck has been mistake prone this season, but he is putting up big counting stats, which could lead to this game being high scoring. Texas’ offense also has an explosive element with QB Quinn Ewers, and the Bulldogs defense has been a disappointment under defensive-minded head coach Kirby Smart.
Georgia’s team total over is another way to play if you agree with both bets, but split them up for Saturday’s big game.
WagerWire's Favorite Things from this Creator:
More: of Brad's Free Picks and Strategies
More Content: The Gaming Juice
We love The Gaming Juice, Check them out!
