Green Bay Packers: 2024 best prop bets and fantasy draft value
The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Green Bay Packers.
Fantasy value — Dontayvion Wicks, WR (ADP: 167.19, WR64)
In the late rounds of your 12-team fantasy draft, strike a match, light the Wicks and, at some point this season, watch the bottle rocket rip through your fantasy competition.
The unheralded wide receiver is certainly someone to highlight on cheat sheets in the beer-hazy rounds. Last season, in the three games he played at least 65% of the snaps — against the Saints, Buccaneers and Bears — he averaged 6.7 targets, 5.3 receptions and 67.7 yards. He also scored two touchdowns.
[ Gamer's Guide to the Gridiron: Fantasy football forecasts and NFL betting picks ]
The then-rookie’s production in several advanced metric categories really impressed. According to PlayerProfiler, Wicks was WR15 or higher in QB rating per target (115.7), route win rate (54.4%) and yards per target (10.0). His handsome 2.06 fantasy points per target also cracked the position’s top 20. A menace against man coverage, he also finished in the upper echelon in win rate against the scheme (50.5%, WR4). Again, the underlying data is telling.
When it comes to fantasy, Wicks' most glaring concern is roster competition. Entering training camp, he’s fourth in the projected pecking order behind Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs. However, considering Watson’s hamstrings are about as durable as tissue paper in a hurricane, Wicks could easily move up the ranks. Due to the prior chemistry established with Jordan Love, he could pop once again. Stash him.
Prop pick — Josh Jacobs OVER 950.5 rushing yards (+115, Caesars)
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In his age-26 season, the 5-foot-10, 223-pound powder keg is likely to ignite. He’s a proven three-down workhorse who wallowed in mediocrity last year with Las Vegas before a quad strain sidelined him the last four games of the regular season.
When healthy, Jacobs was No. 1 in opportunity share among qualifying RBs (84.9%), but a permeable Raiders O-line and subpar passing game diminished his efficiency. He finished a disastrous RB53 in YAC per attempt (2.35), RB36 in total missed tackles forced (28) and RB49 in yards created per touch (2.89). Barf.
Those wretched outputs have turned off many in early fantasy drafts, but the betting market presents an investable opportunity. Behind a projected top-10 offensive line and in a much healthier overall environment, Jacobs should thrive in his new digs. Yes, rookie MarShawn Lloyd is expected to carve out 7-9 touches per game, but on likely 18-22 touches per contest, Jacobs should smash and dash his way to a cash. Roughly 1050-1100 rushing yards are undoubtedly attainable.
With Jacobs +115 to reach just 951 ground yards, this bettor is backing up the truck.
Team lean — Packers UNDER 9.5 wins (+120, Caesars)
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Yes, Packers backers are feeling the OVER green, but the total is slightly inflated. Sure, blame my inner Bears bias all you want. However, with the 11th-hardest projected strength of schedule and only a 55% or greater win probability in eight games per ESPN’s Mike Clay, the plus money screams VALUE. Weeks 7 through 15 — Texans, at Jaguars, Lions, at Bears, 49ers, Dolphins, at Lions, at Seahawks — will be particularly brutal.
It’s a solid line, but 8-9 victories are the most likely outcome.