Week 11 Update

As predicted last week, the Heisman trophy trends continued for these two superstar Pac 12 QBs last Saturday Night. While most of us were asleep, Bo Nix and the Ducks took down the Trojans handily, setting up a clear path for Oregon to play for the conference championship. While Caleb alone wasn't the issue for SC, he hasn't done enough to keep himself in contention for the award, and is all but out of the race at this point in the season.

On the other hand, Bo continues to climb the ranks, and his ticket has reached peak value with a few games to go. Oregon has its sight set on a national title at this point, and Bo backers have to be thrilled to see his winning ticket sitting at $850.

What's the move?

If I were hanging onto my Caleb Williams ticket and someone offered me $5, I would be thrilled, and go buy myself a cup of coffee. Otherwise that ticket will be good for nothing but a drink coaster come December.

While the $850 is tempting for Nix, I think this award is his to lose. Oregon is a wagon, and would be favored over anybody they play in the Pac 12 title game. If he can continue to play at the level he has played at all year long, Nix will be making a speech on stage Saturday night in December. I would not want to make the mistake of selling my ticket on the open market before that happens.

Caleb Williams vs Bo Nix

The college football season is coming down the homestretch, and there is so much on the line heading into Week 11. It has quite simply been one of the most electric seasons in recent memory, with 10-12 teams alive to make the playoffs. Then there is the Pac 12, who was disbanded in the offseason, only to put together the conference's most impressive display from top to bottom in its entire history, in its final year. While the hype around Colorado has faded, and USC’s title hopes have been dashed, the sports most prestigious award is still likely to come out of the West.

Three of the top players in the sport will be in action Saturday night, looking to cement their place in college football history. Michael Pennix Jr., Bo Nix, and Caleb Williams have been putting up incredible numbers for their teams all year, leading their offenses in historic fashion. With two of the top contenders going head to head Saturday night in Eugene, let’s take a look at the chart tracking the season long Heisman Trophy value of a $100 bet for Caleb Williams and Bo Nix.

SNAPSHOT: WEEK 12 GRAPH

King Caleb Crowned Himself Too Early

Entering the year, Caleb was the favorite to win the award as well as to go #1 overall in the NFL draft. Through 6 weeks, that remained true as SC looked unstoppable, averaging 52 points per game on their way to a 6-0 record. However, a poor performance in a huge spot in Week 7 on the road in South Bend began to knock Caleb down a rung on the ladder. When Lincoln Riley’s group followed that up with another lackluster performance at home against Utah in Week 8, you can see Caleb’s Heisman odds tumble dramatically. While he played well in that game, the trophy is generally awarded to the best player on one of the best teams in the nation, and USC was proving to not meet that criteria.

Last week, Williams had one final shot to return to the biggest stage, but his defense let him down yet again, and paved the way for Michael Pennix Jr. of Washington to emerge as a potential Heisman finalist. Currently, the market is showing a whopping $12 value on a $100 Caleb Williams Heisman bet, and it might be wise to claim that before it plummets to $0.

FLASHBACK: WEEK 6 GRAPH

Bo Knows

On the opposite sideline Saturday night will be Oregon’s Bo Nix, who entered the season a few notches lower on Heisman charts, despite seemingly entering his 7th season playing college football. The Ducks had some questions to answer coming into the year, and Nix had yet to put all of his abilities together for a full season. However, things began to click in Week 6, when Bo and the Ducks curb-stomped the CU Buffs at the peak of their hype, turning much of the media attention on Dan Lannings squad. It set up a massive showdown with Washington in Week 8, with the winner likely taking over pole position entering the second half of the season.

While Nix played admirably, it was Pennix who led a last minute TD drive to keep Washington undefeated, and sent the Oregon QB’s Heisman odds back down well below where they started. Since that narrow defeat, the Ducks offense has gone 3-0, scoring 45 points per game, and Bo Nix has looked like the best player in college football. His Heisman odds have followed suit, shooting right back up to peak value, entering Saturday night's showdown. As the beautiful chart above shows, Bo’s Heisman future is currently valued at $567, a tremendous return on a $100 investment!

Let it Ride

While liquidating is tempting, Bo Nix’s preseason odds were +1100, so there is still plenty room for growth on that ticket. If they can get past USC Saturday, which they should, I anticipate a huge showdown in the Pac 12 championship game with Washington, and the winner emerging as the Heisman frontrunner. I think that $567 continues to climb on the open market, and I like Bo Nix to find himself in NYC for the Heisman trophy ceremony next month.