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NFL — 2/6/23

How to Bet the Super Bowl: A WagerWire Academy Tutorial

By 
@AJ
WagerWire Editor-In-Chief
Super Bowl Matchup

Spread

Super Bowl 57 has the second slimmest spread in NFL history, with the Eagles currently sitting as a 1.5 point favorite. It is sacrilegious to not pick a side in the big game in order to at least have some rooting interest at your Super Bowl party, but doing so is no easy task this year.

On one hand, the Eagles have a superior roster from top to bottom, with the better weapons, better offensive line, and better defense. On the other hand, the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes who is the most talented QB to ever play the position. It always feels incredibly foolish when having a wager against Mahomes, only to watch him go up and down the field scoring touchdown after touchdown.

Making this bet is essentially the equivalent of betting on the opening coin toss, however it will at least keep you engaged for the entire night as this should be a great ballgame.

Over/Under

The second most popular bet that will be made this Sunday is on the total number of points scored in this game. That number currently sits at 50, which is relatively high for a Super Bowl where teams often come out conservatively and wait for their opponent to make a mistake.

We are also giving defensive coordinators 2 weeks to come up with a gameplan, a scenario where Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo has proven to thrive against top rated offenses. The Under has miraculously hit in 4 straight Super Bowls, but was extremely evenly distributed prior to that, with the Over going 27–26 all time. 50 may seem high, but who the hell wants to be the person holding an under ticket when Mahomes and Hurts are trading blows, and the game is tied at 24 in the middle of the third quarter? Could the under come out on top for the 5th consecutive year, or are we due for regression?

All of that said, the last time the Chiefs played in the Super Bowl they scored 9 points, and we have seen plenty of high powered offenses struggle in the big game, far more than at any point leading up to it.

Super Bowl MVP

An award that generally goes to the winning team’s Quarterback, this bet can be a nice way to get boosted odds on your game’s winner.

Currently, Mahomes and Hurts both sit at +130, which tells you even more about how big of a toss up this matchup is. We have recently seen a few Wide receivers put together big catch games to sneak in and snatch this coveted award, including Cooper Kupp a year ago, and Edelman a few prior. Another 14 catch game from Kelce would likely do the trick in a Chiefs win, and AJ Brown has big game potential on the other side. Those two sit at +1600 and +1800 respectively, and could provide a juicy pay out, especially if one of them finds the end zone a time or two. Could defensive game wreckers Chris Jones and Hassan Reddick take over and pull a Von Miller, if the game is on the lower scoring side? Possibly, however your best bet is taking the +130 action on the QB you think wins the game. The Chiefs go as Mahomes goes and nobody spreads the ball around better than he does.

Hurts is capable of a huge day combining his passing and running ability, along with his propensity to find the endzone on the ground.

Chiefs/Over Teaser

If you are unfamiliar with the term teaser, it involves buying points on multiple legs and needing to hit both selections to win your bet.

The most common tease is 6 points, which would move the lines of the two bets by 6 points in your favor. For example, if you take the Chiefs, the line would move from +1.5 to +7.5, and you would take the over down from 50 to 44. In a game as evenly matched and tough to predict as this one is, getting more than a touchdown, and teasing through the key number of 7, makes a ton of sense. Taking the total down to 44 is also appealing with the way these offenses can find the end zone. If you want to be on the Philly side of things, you can tease them to +5.5, although teasing through 0 is never recommended. You also could get the total up to 56, and bet for the game to feature a little defense. Any combination of those four sides could make up a nice teaser and provide for some wiggle room.

Just remember the old saying, you’re only teasing yourself.

First TD Scorer

Arguably the most fun of any bet one can make on the big game is the player to score the first touchdown. The rule with this bet is the player must carry the ball into the end zone, so betting Mahomes would not result in a win if he throws for a TD.

The public cleaned up a year ago when they wagered on Odell Beckham Jr. to kick off the scoring, and we’re hearing similar enthusiasm around Travis Kelce this week. The beauty of this bet is you can collect your winnings early on in the night, and it makes the first few drives extraordinarily compelling. Kelce is the current favorite at +650, followed by a couple of Eagles with Hurts and Myles Sanders. Isiah Pacheco of KC has been rolling of late, and Tight Ends in the red zone make Dallas Goedert a viable pick at +1200. Of course there are always the long shots that you can sprinkle in, with a Defensive TD at +3600, or finding a guy that might be involved in a trick play even further down the list.

Whichever way you go, it is a fun prop bet that provides a good pay out and will have you fired up watching the games opening possessions.