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No. 10 Indiana (11-1) at No. 7 Notre Dame (11-1)
Date: Friday, December 20
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: ABC/ESPN
Ben’s pick — Indiana first quarter +3 (-120, BetMGM)
I type this with shaking hands as the nerves for Indiana’s first College Football Playoff game in school history wash over me. Not only is this a win-or-go-home situation, but it’s also a battle for football supremacy in the Hoosier State. So, yeah, there’s a lot at stake.
I’ve tried to be nothing but completely honest with you fine readers on this here website, so when I say I truly don’t know who’s winning this College Football Playoff opener (let alone who’s covering), hopefully you believe me. However, there is one area where IU has thrived this season, and that’s the start of games.
Time and time again, the Hoosiers have come out of the gates hot. They own an impressive 10-1-1 record straight up in the first quarter. They average 7.3 points per first quarter, ranking in the top 25 nationally, and give up just 1.2 points per opening frame — second-best in the country.
If there’s one thing to be said about head coach Curt Cignetti, it’s that he gets his team prepared to play from the start. And while a game like this certainly raises concerns that Indiana’s first-quarter habits might change in a high-pressure, rowdy road environment, don’t fret. IU has been here before — on the road, in a hostile atmosphere, with a lot on the line.
And guess what happened? The Hoosiers ended the first quarter leading 7-0 at Ohio State.
On the flip side, Notre Dame gives up a fairly pedestrian 4.5 points per first quarter at home, good for 62nd in the country, so it’s certainly something that’s exploitable for IU. The Irish’s opening-frame record stands at 7-2-3.
The high stakes and hostile atmosphere shouldn’t be nearly as much of a problem after Indiana experienced Columbus less than a month ago. With the nation’s top-ranked offensive success rate and the sixth-ranked defensive success rate, the Hoosiers should have more than enough firepower to hang with the Irish early.
With the talent gap standing tall in a game like this (much like in the Ohio State matchup), I’m betting on IU to stay with Notre Dame for at least one quarter. Let’s hope the Hoosiers do what they’ve done all season long — start strong.
Season record: 33-22, +10.31 units
Nate’s pick — Indiana-Notre Dame UNDER 51.5 total points (-115, FanDuel)
This is the first-round game I’m most looking forward to watching between two teams from the state of Indiana. There’s some unknown about both squads because they had favorable schedules for most of the season.
Indiana +7.5 was the initial bet I considered, but I feel better about the under because I’m concerned about the Hoosiers offense being able to have success against a stout Fighting Irish defense. Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke has had a great season getting the program on the map, but this is a tough spot for him and the offense in a raucous environment.
As for Indiana’s defense, I like what I’ve seen from it throughout the season and have some questions about Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard as a passer.
IU’s lone loss was a 38-15 setback at Ohio State, but the Hoosiers defense played better than the score indicates. Two of the Buckeyes’ touchdowns were from a short drive after the Indiana punter dropped a snap and a punt return TD. The last touchdown Indiana gave up was on an awkward play in which Ohio State appeared it was going to kneel and ended up getting in the end zone.
Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti knows his team’s best path to win is to shorten the game and run the ball, so I expect Indiana to chew clock and Notre Dame to also focus on running the ball with temperatures forecast in the 20s.
Season record: 25-25-1, +0.29 units
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