Iowa vs. Nebraska should be a treat, as it’s rare to get an intense rivalry matchup in the NCAA Tournament. On DraftKings, the line currently sits at Iowa +1.5 with a total of 131.5. BartTorvik has this game projected as a 67-66 Nebraska win.

This will be the third meeting between these two teams, so familiarity should play a big role. That’s especially important against the unique defense Nebraska runs with its “no middle” scheme. By the third time seeing it, offenses are usually much more comfortable, and when you give one of the nation’s best point guards in Bennett Stirtz two full game sessions to prepare, I expect he can find ways to exploit it. On top of this, the short roll will be open as all ball screens are hedged. Expect the Iowa role guys to be more comfortable and poised in these situations.

On the other side, Nebraska has a favorable matchup as well. Iowa’s two-point defense has been a major weakness, particularly against top-100 competition, where they rank 197th nationally in that category. We also saw against Florida that Iowa struggles defending backdoor cuts, which is a major part of Nebraska’s offense. In their last meeting, Nebraska scored more points off backdoor action against Iowa than the Hawkeyes had allowed in any game all season. Nebraska should be able to have a lot of success inside the paint

I think this sets up for a game where Nebraska can score efficiently, while Iowa should also be more comfortable offensively after seeing the no-middle defense multiple times. With both teams having clear paths to success on offense, I lean toward the over 131.5 in this matchup.

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