Aspirations were sky-high for Rick Pitino’s St. John’s squad after hauling in the nation’s No. 1 transfer portal class per 247, which led the Red Storm to a preseason No. 5 ranking and opened them at 16/1 to cut down the nets in April. Things didn’t go according to plan early, and one could argue they still haven’t fully, but the idea that St. John’s is peaking at the right time is starting to look very real.
In today’s college basketball landscape, where roster turnover is driven by the transfer portal, teams often need time to gel. St. John’s typically rolls out four starters who played elsewhere the previous season. Basketball is a chemistry-driven sport, and chemistry only grows with time and reps. That has been especially evident at the point guard position for the Johnnies. While it’s often a game of Russian roulette as to which guard shows up on a given night, the production there has steadily improved over the past month enough, at least, to win.
That adjustment period showed during a challenging non-conference slate, where the Red Storm went 7–4, with all four losses coming against quality opponents. The season hit its low point on Saturday, January 3rd. Favored by 14.5 points against Providence and jumping out to a 15–2 lead five minutes in, St. John’s completely unraveled, suffering a loss that torpedoed their national perception and media respect. Sometimes, a humiliating loss is exactly what a team needs, a reality check, and the Red Storm have appeared to respond well.
Since the Providence loss, the Red Storm have flipped the switch. Ignited by a lineup change of adding point forward and former 5-star recruit Dillon Mitchell into the starting lineup. His athleticism, defensive versatility, and ability to initiate the offense have simplified the game for the Johnnies. Since this change, St. John’s is 5-0, ranks 12th nationally in overall efficiency, and is powered by the 16th-ranked offense and 28th-ranked defense per BartTorvik.
KenPom data tells a similar story, and a compelling one. Twenty-four of the last twenty-five national champions ranked inside the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. St. John’s is knocking on that door, currently sitting 29th in offense and 18th in defense, with clear upward momentum. If history is any indicator, they’re positioning themselves exactly where you’d want to be heading into March.
The betting markets, however, don’t seem to agree, at least not yet. You can still find St. John’s as high as 100/1 to win the national championship. That number feels disconnected from the trajectory of a Pitino-coached team rounding into form, aligning with key metric trends. If you're looking for a long-shot investment with real upside, now doesn’t seem like a terrible time to buy into Hall of Famer Rick Pitino and the Red Storm. Buy Low Sell High.
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