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NCAAB — 12/7/24

Kentucky vs. Gonzaga best bet

By 
Brad Evans
WagerWire Contributor
James Snook, Imagn Images

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Sometimes you want to make a quick pitstop, empty the bladder, grab a bag of salty snacks and limber up the limbs before hitting the open road again. For the fast-minded who enjoy simple $2 scratchers hoping to uncover the jackpot-winning image, here are quick thoughts and the lean on Kentucky-Gonzaga.

No. 4 Kentucky (7-1) vs. No. 7 Gonzaga (7-1) in Seattle
Date: Saturday, December 7
Time: 10 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2

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The last time Gonzaga hosted a highly ranked team on its turf, the national TV audience witnessed a gruesome mauling. The Baylor Bears were transformed into cabin rugs in a 101-63 opening-week massacre.

Though Seattle — where Saturday night’s showcase against Kentucky will take place — is four hours west of Spokane, the capacity crowd expected to pack Climate Pledge Arena is sure to be 95% Bulldogs fans.

Since each school has already engaged in a number of challenging battles whether home, away or on neutral courts, another Gonzaga-issued slaughter isn’t likely.

The pick — Kentucky-Gonzaga OVER 164.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Kentucky, the fourth-oldest team in the country, has dudes who can buy their own liquor (shout out, BTN’s Stephen Bardo). Not wet behind the ears, Mark Pope’s Wildcats have endured their fair share of tight games. Though many UK players have transferred from smaller schools like San Diego State, BYU, Dayton and Drexel, the invaluable lessons learned along the way are sure to pay dividends come March.

Both programs have registered marquee wins (Kentucky: Duke; Gonzaga: Baylor, at San Diego State, Indiana). Both have experienced the agony of defeat (Kentucky: at Clemson; Gonzaga: vs. West Virginia). And undoubtedly both are hungry to add another prized victory before the holiday break.

For fourth-ranked Kentucky, speed and across-the-board consistency are its calling cards.

A month into the regular season, Big Blue Nation is No. 18 in effective field-goal percentage offense and No. 16 in effective field-goal percentage defense. Due to the stellar play of 7-footer Amari Williams, lane driver Otega Oweh and stretch four Andrew Carr, Lexington’s legion has shot over 60% inside the arc while only allowing 0.95 points per possession on defense.

As for the semi-home team, the No. 7 Zags, like their adversary, prefer a faster pace.

Mark Few’s crew is also excellent in nearly every facet, checking in at No. 48 in effective field-goal percentage offense and effective field-goal percentage defense. Commanding on the glass and netting a sensational 82.4% on free throws, they tax opponents in various ways.

The tremendous post execution of Graham Ike and the point guard vision of Ryan Nembhard are Gonzaga's greatest strengths. On top of that, versatile bigs Braden Huff and Ben Gregg cause matchup headaches, while sharpshooters Nolan Hickman (46.2 3PT%) and Dusty Stromer (50.0%) repeatedly plunge daggers from distance.

In a matchup with Elite Eight feels, points shall be plentiful. Both teams prefer games being comfortably played in the 80s. Given each side’s proven veterans and overall scoring skillfulness, the first team to 90 likely wins.

Give this gambler the OVER.

Season record: 8-5, +3.09 units

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