As is tradition, all our brackets are busted following a wild and unpredictable first weekend of Madness. For the second time in history, we watched a 16 seed take a 1 seed down in Purdue, and the 15th seeded, IVY league champs from Princeton are still alive heading into the second week. Of the many millions of bracket entries worldwide, none remain perfect. That is why we love this tournament.
Looking ahead, the two one seeds that remain are still the favorites to cut down the nets. Alabama, at 3/1 to win it all, has looked every part of their #1 seed, with two dominant wins behind a suffocating defense. Houston at 4.5/1 was able to shake off the cob webs against Northern Kentucky, and looked better and healthier in their second round smackdown of Auburn.
Perhaps the most impressive team so far in this tournament is 4th seeded Connecticut, who currently sit at 8.5/1, presenting a lot of value. They dominated Rick Pitino's Ioana team in Round 1, and ran a strong St Mary’s team out of the gym Sunday afternoon. With 8 seeded Arkansas up next before a date with the winner of what will be a hotly contested UCLA v Gonzaga matchup, I look at UCONN as a serious contender.

Speaking of UCLA, they put aside a lot of their pre-tournament concerns, dispatching their first two opponents handily. They currently sit at 8/1, and have to be feeling good about the style of basketball they are playing. In his 7th or 8th NCAA tournament appearance, Drew Timme took over for Gonzaga, willing his team to victory over Jamie Dixon’s tough Horned Frogs. The Zags are playing with an underdogs mentality for a change, and present decent value at 10/1 to win the whole thing. It will be an electric 2 vs 3 matchup Thursday night in Sin City.
The other 2 versus 3 matchup across the bracket goes Friday in Kansas City, when Texas takes on Xavier. The Musketeers (40/1) were down large to Kennesaw State in Round 1, only to storm back to advance and then annihilate a Pitt team that never belonged in that game to begin with. The Longhorns on the other hand are sitting at 10/1 and surely feel like they were deserving of a 1 seed after rolling Colgate and knocking off a hot shooting Penn State squad.
Another team sitting at 40/1 to receive a tie from Jim Nantz is San Diego State, who I gave out as a dark horse before the tourney started. Clearly still getting no respect from Vegas, this team has shown how tough they are to play against and could present problems for Alabama down low. The Aztecs are not a typical Mountain West team that flames out early, and are a good value pick at this point in the tournament.
The long shot is Princeton at 150/1, who will have a tough time keeping their Cinderella story alive against 6th seeded Creighton. The Blue Jays were another value pick of mine at the start of the dance and have proved themselves to be elite with convincing wins over NC State and 3rd seeded Baylor. At 9.5/1 and heavy favorites to move to the Elite 8, this would not be a bad play by any stretch. We also have 7, 8, and 9 seeds alive with Mr. March himself, Tom Izzo leading MSU over Marquette, aforementioned Arkansas, and an upstart FAU team. These are long shot teams that have been great stories, but groups I can’t ultimately see getting to Houston.
If Kansas State can shoot the ball like they did down the stretch at Kentucky, they are certainly formidable, but face longer odds at 35/1. The last team not many figured would still be alive is Tennessee, who manhandled the popular Duke Blue Devils in Round 2. At 11/1, Rick Barnes is looking to get his team all the way home, though I am not sure they have the talent to get it done.
I’ll be taking hard looks at UCONN, Creighton, and Texas all of whom have decent value and have looked extremely good so far. With Round 1 and 2 exceeding the hype, the rest of this tournament should be nothing short of incredible. The only shame is we must wait until Thursday to watch it all play out. Wake me up then.
