Mercury vs. Mystics: Early tipoff points to this best bet

Wake up, make some coffee and tune into WNBA action on Tuesday morning. We’re betting on the early game!

That’s right. By the end of your brunch, you’ll already have a winning bet in the bag.

The pick — Mercury-Mystics UNDER 168.5 points (-110, Caesars)

• Caesars Offer: Up to $1000 Back in Bonus Bets

Because Phoenix vs. Washington is starting at 11:30 a.m. ET, I have to side with the Sandman and take two sleepy teams to hit the under.

Most of the logic behind this wager stems from Camp Day last week in the W. Many contests were played in the morning to accommodate local camp kids. Of the four games that started at noon or earlier local time, three of them hit the under.

The logic is clear: Earlier start times mean more tired players and struggling teams who are thrown off their typical game schedules. Add in the fact that the Mercury are also playing their third game of an East Coast road trip, and you have another significant reason for potential offensive instability.

If you don’t trust the situational angle, then how about the numbers?

Phoenix has been playing at a crawl lately, with the league’s fourth-slowest pace over the team’s last seven games. Don’t worry — the Mystics will contribute to the under as well. They sit ninth in the WNBA in home offensive rating (98.6).

All of this is to say that — between two teams that have to rise early, the recent history of unders in this situation and one squad struggling offensively — I really like the under. Win this bet and treat yourself to an extra Tuesday brunch mimosa!

WNBA season record: 9-7, +1.10 units