Friday night in Champaign doesn’t get much better than this. The No. 3 Michigan Wolverines men's basketball head into Illinois to face the No. 10 Illinois Fighting Illini men's basketball in a return game that already has extra juice thanks to Morez Johnson’s transfer in the portal a move that didn’t sit well within the Illinois program.
The Illini return home from a tough West Coast swing against the USC Trojans and the UCLA Bruins , including an upset loss to UCLA as 8.5-point favorites. Expect urgency tonight from Brad Underwood’s group. This matchup pits the No. 1 offense in KenPom (Illinois) against the No. 2 defense (Michigan) a true strength-on-strength battle.
As mentioned in my last Michigan article, Michigan lives in a base drop coverage defensively. Illinois has the personnel to test that scheme: floor-spacing bigs who can pull defenders away from the rim and elite ball-screen operators in Kylan Boswell and Keaton Wagner who can make reads in space. If Illinois is generating clean looks out of those actions, they’ll score. If they aren’t, that’s where the danger lies.
Defensively, Illinois’ KenPom ranking (top 35) feels a bit misleading. They rank 365th nationally in turnover rate forced dead last in the country. That’s a major concern against a Michigan offense that ranks top five nationally and doesn’t beat itself. There’s also the physicality question. I’m not sure Illinois has a clear answer for Yaxel Lendeborg, and we’ve already seen Michigan State Spartans men's basketball impose their will on the Illini with strength and interior presence. If Michigan controls the glass and the paint, that could tilt things quickly.
Both teams have blown past preseason expectations. A $100 futures ticket on the Michigan Wolverines to win the national title on FanDuel would now be worth $438, while the same $100 bet on the Illinois Fighting Illini men's basketball would be valued at $175.
Ultimately, I expect points and plenty of them. I like the over 157.5 on FanDuel. Michigan ranks 15th nationally in tempo and should be comfortable dictating pace. If Illinois isn’t hitting shots, Michigan can push in transition. If Illinois is hitting shots, Michigan will still push the pace on makes and find success in the half court. Either way, the offensive pathways for both teams are clear, and neither defense profiles as a consistent disruptor in this specific matchup. I also have a slight lean for Michigan Moneyline at -122.
