The last game of the NCAA Tournament is here, and it’s a sad day. The Michigan Wolverines will be taking on the UConn Huskies with a title on the line. The current number on FanDuel sits at Michigan -7.5 with a total of 144.5.

Throughout this tournament, Michigan has been dominant. Their smallest win has been by 13 points, with every other victory coming by 18+, including a shocking demolition of the Arizona Wildcats. There are clear paths to a blowout again here, but it’s hard to ignore Dan Hurley in this spot. He’s 9-0 against the spread in his last four tournaments on short rest, which makes fading UConn uncomfortable.

As mentioned in my last UConn breakdown, they found success against Illinois because they were allowed to run their sets and generate clean catch-and-shoot threes. This matchup is very different and not in a good way for UConn. Michigan has forced high isolation rates all season long and allows one of the lowest catch-and-shoot rates in the country. UConn will still get threes up (Michigan ranks 273rd in three-point rate allowed), but most of those looks will be off the dribble, which is far less efficient. UConn’s biggest source of offense has been Tarris Reed Jr. in the post, but that becomes much tougher against the 7’3” presence of Aday Mara. Their biggest chance for success here is for the big man to get lost in all their actions.

On the other end, UConn does have a path defensively. They’re known for their hard hedge coverage, which typically has been the coverage where Michigan produces its most inefficient offensive output; it will be pushed into isolation more often, which isn’t their biggest strength. If Yaxel Lendeborg were fully healthy, this would be a different conversation, but as we saw Saturday, he’s clearly limited with a sprained MCL and ankle. That shifts more responsibility to Morez Johnson Jr., who should have a mismatch advantage since UConn hasn’t played double bigs all year. Expect Hurley to counter with some doubles on post touches. UConn should also be able to limit Michigan’s transition game and hold its own on the glass, which is key to staying in the game with Michigan.

According to BartTorvik, this projects as a 77-71 Michigan win, and the total has opened 4 points lower. That opener seems “short”, combined with the matchup, points toward a more controlled, half-court game.

Official Pick: Under 144.5 & Lean UConn +7.5

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