Minnesota Vikings: 2024 best prop bets and fantasy draft value:
The sweat may be pooling up in all the wrong places, but, before you know it, changing leaves, cool temperatures and football will be in the air. To help fantasy managers and devoted bettors get through summer’s soaring heat, The Gaming Juice’s resident gridiron gambler, Brad Evans, is here to preview each NFL franchise — fantasy values, prop picks and team win totals. Channeling Richard Dent, Reggie White and J.J. Watt, the Three-Point Stance has eyes on sacking the sportsbooks and fantasy rivals.
Today’s featured squad: Minnesota Vikings.
Fantasy value — Ty Chandler, RB (ADP: 179.23, WR51)
One series of words to whisper to yourself several beers in on fantasy draft day is depth, depth and more depth. At a violent position where turnover constantly occurs, stockpiling running backs is undeniably critical.
In the double-digit rounds, targeting Chandler is a strong recommendation. The Vikings offensive line is a questionable unit, Minnesota ranks No. 20 in projected ease of schedule for fantasy RBs and veteran Aaron Jones is the depth-chart topper, but the second-year back will likely be heavily involved, possibly logging 11-13 touches per game.
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Last year on 123 total touches, Chandler finished a noteworthy RB18 in yards created per touch and tallied a respectable 2.83 YAC per attempt. He also caught 84.0% of his intended looks.
As late-season surges against Denver (110 total yards) and Cincinnati (157 total yards, 1 TD) showed, he’s capable of packing a punch when called upon. Remember the name.
Prop pick — Justin Jefferson UNDER 7.5 receiving TDs (-120, Caesars)
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Fire up “The Fresh Prince of Bel Air” final episode memes. With Kirk Cousins no longer under center, Jordan Addison in deep water due to an alleged DUI and T.J. Hockenson still on the mend from a late-season knee shredding, arguably the best wide receiver in the league probably houses lonely feelings.
As an alpha and indisputably the most dangerous weapon in Minneapolis, Jefferson should get to replicate his 27.2% team target share (10.0 per game) from 2023, at a minimum. But with spirals spinning off the hand of Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy, Jefferson’s No. 25 standing in catchable target rate could drop off dramatically. Minnesota’s bottom-half offensive line also raises doubts.
Two years ago in a mammoth campaign, Jefferson led all NFL wide receivers in red-zone targets, totaling 28 in 17 games. Last year, he averaged only ONE look per game inside the 20. And, remember, that was with a proven accurate QB.
No doubt, Jefferson is capable of wrecking secondaries downfield. However, the last time Darnold posted a large sample size — with the Panthers in 2021 — he ranked QB31 in deep-ball completion percentage. Granted, he didn’t have a wideout the caliber of Jefferson, but if Darnold or McCarthy take the majority of snaps, several unknowns apply.
The Vikings’ top dog scored at least eight touchdowns in two of his first four seasons. Again, the volume will likely be ridiculous, but the defensive attention he’ll command and the sketchy QB play he’ll face say the UNDER is the play. And that’s with the fifth-easiest projected schedule among fantasy wide receivers.
Team lean — Vikings UNDER 6.5 wins (+125, Caesars)
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There are many variables working against Kevin O’Connell’s club. First, the NFC North might be the most competitive it’s been in years. Second, the roster construct is bottom-10 in the league on both sides of the ball. Third, Minnesota owns the eighth-hardest overall projected schedule.
The number is well set, but Captain Hook could plunge his cutlass into the backs of over chasers. The value — and it’s a believable outcome — sides with the UNDER at a sexy +125. Keep in mind that ESPN’s Mike Clay gives the Purple People “Greeters” a 47% win probability in only three games.
The annual winter chill in Minnesota may arrive early.
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