Missouri vs. Texas A&M best bet

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No. 9 Missouri (4-0) at No. 25 Texas A&M (4-1)
Date: Saturday, October 5
Time: Noon ET
TV: ABC

Missouri faces one of the toughest opponents on its schedule in its first road game of the season at Texas A&M. While I said on the Fade Five Podcast I would take the Tigers moneyline, I’m also looking at another bet that focuses on the Missouri offense.

The pick — Missouri team total OVER 23.5 (-115, Caesars)

You can’t help but be impressed by Mizzou’s offensive numbers. The Tigers rank 13th in the nation in offensive success rate, ninth in EPA per rush and 13th in third/fourth down success rate (50.9%). Led by senior quarterback Brady Cook, the offense typically moves the ball with ease.

Defensively, Texas A&M has shown to be solid but struggles in the passing game. The Aggies are 81st in the nation in passing yards allowed per game, and that’s not ideal. They’re also 68th in passing yards per completion allowed.

The Texas A&M defense can struggle against a good passing team. Missouri will be the best passing team the Aggies have seen so far.

With a strong receiving corps featuring Luther Burden III (a projected first-round NFL Draft selection) and Theo Wease Jr., Cook will have more than enough firepower to stretch the Texas A&M defense and reach the end zone more than a few times.

Scoring is simply what Mizzou does. The Tigers average 31.7 points per game and have surpassed the 23.5-point mark in every single game this season. Their lowest-scoring output came in a 27-21 victory against Boston College.

The point is that Missouri can score. They’ll do plenty of scoring on the road in College Station.

Season record: 10-9, +1.07 units

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